Cuba

As the Japanese are wont to say, "business is war." Apparrently, that is how the Bush White House sees the recently-announced deal between Switzerland and Iran over a $42 billion natural gas contract. And, living up to the their own dysfunctional war planning record, the White House is now considering a retaliation against Switzerland where it hurts the United States most: by ending the Swiss sponsorship of the U.S. and Cuban Interests Sections. That will teach them not to mess with us.

Of all the pathetic evidence that the Bush Administration had degraded U.S. influence in the world, this is up there. Rarely have we seen how weak the man behind the curtain really is.

It also is an object lesson in global leadership. Part one of that lesson is that states will always seek to satisfy their own calculation of their national interests. Unless the interest equation is changed, inertia will rule in the affairs of sovereign peoples. The Swiss need gas, Iran has it. The Bush administration did not, apparently, care enough to insert themselves effectively in the Swiss decision loop.

Our own Col. Lawrence Wilkerson reminds us that the transition in Havana from Fidel to Raul Castro is almost complete, that the initial reforms expected by a Raul administration are starting and that United States policy toward the island continues to to relegate Washington to the sidelines. I would take it a step further: by maintaining the embargo, we continue to give Raul the gift we gave his older brother--the perfect excuse for poor economic performance and a ready-made tool for whipping up Cuban nationalism. I look more at this issue in Mind the Gap: How the Miami Generation Gap Could Shape Cuba Policy

Comrade and General Raúl Castro Ruz has now, it seems, taken full control of the reins of government in Cuba and el commandante y jefe, Fidel Castro—who for nearly half a century successfully defied nine (not counting Ike, who knew better) American presidents—has receded more and more into the background noise of a slowly changing Cuba. But what does this successful and now almost complete transition portend for the 11 million Cubans who deserve a better life?

One of the very coolest and most informative blogs I check in on a daily basis is ArmsControlWonk.com published by my New America Foundation colleague Jeffrey Lewis.

Both of us were asked by the Better World Campaign to offer comments for its "On Day One" initiative. He talked nukes, and I talked Cuba. . .though I'd also like to talk about Israel/Palestine, Syria, China, Iran, climate change, oil/energy, and nukes. I may fool them and wear different hats and perhaps a moustache to make myself appear differently.

With Fidel Castro stepping down this weekend (see earlier TAS posts here and here), and after a bit of behind-the-scenes nudging from some of our colleagues, last night CNN and Univision asked Senators Clinton and Obama about how they would handle Cuba if they were president. And it was no brief exchange, Cuba took 9 of the debate's 90 minutes. Check it out:

What should the United States do now that Fidel Castro is about to depart from the scene? The New America Foundation's U.S.-Cuba Policy Initiative held a major conference call analyzing the significance of the news and was called on by domestic and international media to comment on this historic opportunity.

Here's a selection of our appearances:

Historic Opportunity, by Steven Clemons, The Guardian
Castro's Exit is a Giant Opportunity, by Steven Clemons, The Philadelphia Inquirer
For Cuba Experts, Castro Presents Opportunity for Change, by Mike Nizza, New York Times' 'The Lede'
U.S. Cuba Polcy Could Get New Look, by Richard Wolf, USAToday
Our Failed, Punitive Policy, Anya Landau French, The Washington Post
Fidel Castro's Resignation Gives American Inventors New Hope For Havana, Nightly Business Report
Castro Hints at Younger Face for Cuba, by Carol Williams, L.A. Times
Anti-Embargo Groups Call for Lifting Sanctions, by Pablo Bachelet, Kansas City Star
As Cuba's Power Shifts, So Should U.S. Policy, Editorial, Palm Beach Post
White House Rejects Calls for an End to Embargo, by Suzanne Goldenberg, The Guardian
US Awaits Its Own Transition to Review Cuba Policy, by Jim Lobe, AntiWar.com
The Cuba Embargo Stays: Bush, by Richard Sisk, New York Daily News
A Broker's Role for Canada, by Tim Harper, Toronto Star

From the Havana Note:
The Cuba Embargo Does Not Give US Leverage -- It Harms American Interests, by Steve Clemons
Some Key Statements on US-Cuba Relations and the News from Fidel Castro, by Steve Clemons
Time to Retire America's Failed Cuba Policy, by Sarah Stephens
Fidel Castro's Advice for Politicians, by Gail Reed
Fidel Castro Not Returning to the Presidency, by Steve Clemons

Today, New America's U.S.-Cuba Policy Initiative gathered leading Cuba watchers and scholars to discuss the implications of Fidel Castro's announcement that he will not seek nor will he accept the role of Cuban President and Commander-in-Chief. (On Sunday, Feb. 24, the Cuban Council of State is expected to hand power to Fidel's brother, Raul Castro, ending Fidel's 49-year rule with a constitutional succession.)

An MP3 audio recording of this conference call is available here.

Today, the New America Foundation's U.S.-Cuba Policy Initiative gathered leading Cuba watchers and scholars to discuss the implications of Fidel Castro's announcement that he will not seek nor will he accept the role of Cuban President and Commander-in-Chief. (On Sunday, Feb. 24, the Cuban Council of State is expected to hand power to Fidel's brother, Raul Castro, ending Fidel's 49-year rule with a constitutional succession.)

An MP3 audio recording of this conference call is available below. Participants in the call, which I moderated, included:

• Rep. Jim McGovern
  U.S. Congressman (D-Mass.)
• Col. Lawrence Wilkerson (ret.)
  Co-Chair, U.S.-Cuba Policy Initiative, New America Foundation
  Former chief of staff to secretary of state Colin Powell
• Julia Sweig
  Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
• Peter Kornbluh
  Director, Cuba Documentation Project, National Security Archive
• Sarah Stephens
  Executive Director, Center for Democracy in the Americas
• Jake Colvin
  Director, USA*Engage, National Foreign Trade Council

Steve Clemons, writing at The Washington Note, has this to say about the linkage between Cuba policy and the politics of South Florida:

THE Cold War continues to rage in one last place in the world -- and that is between the United States and Cuba. It makes no sense for a democratic American government to unconstitutionally inhibit the travel of its own citizens to Cuba -- when it has embraced China and Vietnam and is on the way to normalizing relations with North Korea.

One of the protectors of the status quo and a failed American embargo of Cuba is Lincoln Diaz-Balart, one of two Diaz-Balart brothers currently serving as members of the Florida Congressional delegation.

Lincoln and his brother are nephews by former marriage of Fidel Castro -- and any scant investigation of the battle lines in the US-Cuba standoff will show the situation to be something of a nasty, Kentucky-style family spat.

Col. Lawrence Wilkerson (ret.), Co-Chair of New America's U.S.-Cuba Policy Initiative comments on the ease with which Cuba's leaders can ignore America's unilateral trade embargo. From the Havana Note:

LET'S look at what Cuba is doing with regard to diversification. It’s darned smart.

Having experienced the Soviet withdrawal from their island—a move that impacted nearly every Cuban in some way—and the concomitant epiphany of the tragic downside of sole-source support, the Cuban leadership vowed never to repeat. As a result, today that leadership is diversifying its support by state and function. Spain, China, Germany Canada, Israel, Venezuela, Brazil, and others fill the former role and nickel, tobacco, oil, rum, tourism, and other trade the latter. Cuba will never be trapped again into reliance on one state or on one or two commodities or trade functions.