Campaign 2008

Democrats have to be feeling better after Senator McCain's speech last night.  Sarah Palin's performance Wednesday rattled them enough that they are dispatching Hillary to Florida and female senators and governors to every corner of the nation to shore up female vote.  Last night, Senator McCain had an opportunity to make a one term pledge and reveal new specific, moderate, reform minded policies that would show how he would govern differently than George Bush, how he would fix the economy and how he would be a reformer in the future, not just some who pushed for moderate reforms in the past.  In the past, McCain has had moderate, creative ideas on campaign finance, immigration and climate change, to name a few.  Yet his policy perscriptions last night on taxes, education, job training and energy were non creative, unoriginal and too aligned with the current Bush programs.  A one term pledge would have allowed McCain to argue his theme that he is in government to serve above politics.  As good as Palin is, she does not have the appeal to independents that a Joe Lieberman would have.  McCain had an opportunity last night to hit a home run as Palin, Clinton and Obama did in their speeches.  Instead, he settled for a double.  A good personal story, very good rhetoric about separating from Bush but no policy meat to back it up.  The ol' soldier McCain is a good shooter, but last night Obama dodged a bullet. 

Sarah Palin was very impressive last night in her speech.  She connects enough that there will be some voters who say, 'can we just vote for her.'  but it comes down to John and Barack and you have to like Barack's chances.  McCain has a chance tonight to separate from GOP label.  He has the record in the Senate to do that but he cant just talk about the past record and run against Reid/Pelosi, he needs to lay out creative ideas on health, energy, etc. that aren't typical GOP, if he does that he has a shot. There need to be bold new ideas.  Otherwise his whole ticket will pail in comparison.

Watching the convention now.  Did Rudy Guiliani just say that the Democrats are in a state of denial about September 11 because they won't use the phrase "Islamic terrorism."  Guiliani said, "Please tell me, who are they insulting when they use the words "Islamic terrorism?  They are insulting terrorists." 

Rudy is in a state of denial about what the phrase "Islamic terrorism" means to Muslim Americans.  It insults and stereotypes Muslims and divides Americans.  It is a very unfortunate statement from the keynote speaker. 

As Republicans gather in St. Paul, Minn., this week to nominate John McCain for president, Early Ed Watch is taking a moment to look at what the 2008 Republican Party Platform says about early education. Here's the relevant section:

Early Childhood Education
The family is the most powerful influence on a child’s ability to succeed. As such, parents are our children’s first and foremost teachers. We support family literacy, which improves the literacy, language, and life skills of both parents and children along with the continued improvement of early childhood programs, such as Head Start, from low-income families. We reaffirm our support for the child care tax credit that helps parents choose the care best for their family.

Happy Labor Day to all working for the good of our nation!

The selection of Sarah Palin as McCain's VP is by any estimate a very interesting pick.  Her pro-life Catholic roots should help McCain with blue collar Catholic voters generally.  I'm starting to feel that this election comes down to who wins Colorado and New Mexico.  Perhaps McCain flips New Hampshire.  Certainly McCain must "hold serve" on more states than Obama to stay even and that puts more pressure on him.  If Obama gets momentum and starts flipping states like Ohio, Virginia, Nevada or Florida its all over.  It is less likely that McCain flips Democratic states like Pennsylvania or Michigan but is possible.

So I think it comes down to Colorado and New Mexico.  Can two Westerners make these GOP states?  And can Palin's Catholic roots help with hispanic voters in New Mexico?  We'll see. 

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D92R51LG0&show_article=1

There is a widespread assumption in the media that Barack Obama's race may well cost him the election.  The assumption is that unspoken racism will cause some people to pull back from voting for Obama and that when they are in the voting booth they will refrain from voting for him strictly because of his race.  Its the "Tom Bradley" factor.  It is very difficult to test or poll for such racism of course.

Yet could it be that race is more of an asset to Obama than a liability?  There is also speculation that the prospect of the first African American President will substantially increase voter turnout by blacks.  That there could be some voters who only vote for Obama because he is black.  Many black Republicans I have talked to and read about are seriously considering Obama. 

 I tend to think the negative impact of racism sadly will outweigh the increase in the black vote.  But we shouldn't just assume that.   

While most of the news media is focused on Mitt Romney as McCain's running-mate, McCain would hit a home run if he walked onto that stage in Dayton, Ohio tomorrow with Colin Powell.  That would be the one pick that moves the needle and McCain should be doing everything in his power this week to convince Powell to say "yes."