Ballot Measures

California is stuck. More than two months have passed since the constitutional deadline to adopt a state budget for the '08-'09 fiscal year, and there's still no budget. What's worse, potential compromises all involve adding measures to this November's ballot. And the deadline for adding such measures already has passed -- it was Saturday. It's unlikely that legislative Republicans, who as the minority party are able to hold things up because California requires a two-thirds vote for budget passage, will relent on their demand for a rainy day fund and some sort of spending limit. Such changes are constitutional and require a vote of the people. Plus, Democrats are banking on money from borrowing against lottery revenues to pay for programs. Since the lottery was enacted by ballot initiative, these kinds of changes to the lottery require another vote of the people.

So what's the way out? Here's a fearless prediction: California's legislature will pass and the governor will sign a budget sometime in the next month. And that budget likely will include ballot measures on spending and the lottery as part of the compromise. But those measures can't appear on this November's ballot. Time has run out. Instead, they'll appear on the next scheduled statewide ballot -- in June 2010. In effect, the California's '08-'09 budget fight might not end until then. 

The Aug. 26 state elections in Alaska are approaching. The political world is watching to see if indicted U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens can survive the Republican primary. This blog is watching  Ballot Measure 2, the Alaska initiative to bar the shooting of wolves from the air. (Aerial population control of grizzlies and wolverines also would be covered by the ban). But there are three other measures, one on gaming, one establishing public finance for campaigns, and a third, Prop 4, that would put new regulations on mines in the name of cleaning water. The Homer paper provides a rundown of the measures here.

It's two months past the deadline, and still no deal on a new California budget. Midnight Saturday was the Secretary of State's deadline for the legislature and governor to add measures to the November ballot. Some measures would need to be part of a budget compromise. You'd think all sides would spend that time in the Capitol. You'd think wrong. The legislature reconvenes today for a bit of grandstanding and meaningless votes on the budget.

Since our elected leaders seem so unwilling to put in the time in Sacramento and reach a compromise, I offer a modest proposal in Sunday's LA Times: relocate the state government to Monterey.

USC's Initiative & Referendum Institute has released their excellent and thorough review of ballot measures across the country. The headline is the number of measures involving social issues. The file is a PDF attachment to this post.

THE GROWING BALLOT: Friend of the blog Robert Greene has this excellent update on the rapidly expanding California ballot. The voters have done their part through signature gathering; now the legislature adds its own measure to the ballot.

HIGH SPEED RAIL: The much delayed bond measure establishing a high-speed rail system in California will finally appear on this November's ballot. But the legislature can't reach a compromise on oversight for the funding.

Possibly yes. A Jersey City councilman and potential mayoral candidate has submitted signatures on a pair of local ballot measures that would give Jersey City some of the strict ethical standards in the Garden State, Politicker reports. One initiative would ban city council members from accepting more than one public salary or pension. The other would ban no-bid contracts to campaign donors.

Once a decade, California starts over at 1 in the numbering of its ballot measures. This November's ballot thus provides a fresh start. After Prop 99 in June, we start with Prop 1 this November. The Secretary of State is out with the numbers of all 11 measures on the November ballot. Here they are:

The big ones to watch are Prop 2 (the Humane Society is the champion of direct democracy), Prop 8 (the much talked about gay marriage initiative), and Prop 11 (the redistricting measure).

Prop. 1: High speed rail bond.

Prop. 2: Humane Society farm animal confinement initiative

Prop 3: Children's hospital bond

Prop 4: parental notificatoin before minors have an abortion.

Prop 5: lighter sentences, easing of parole restrictions for non-violent offenders.

Prop 6: Anti-gang initiative

Prop 7: Initiative to require utilities to generate 20 percent of power from renewable sources by 2010.

Prop 8: anti-gay marriage initiative.

Prop 9: a crime victims' bill of rights.

Prop 10: $5 billion alternative fuel bond.

Prop 11: Redistricting reform.

Friend of the blog Robert Greene breaks them down -- including news that four initiatives have qualified -- at the LA Times' Opinion LA.

This is also posted at Fox and Hounds Daily, a new news and commentary site focusing on California and business.

There is no longer any doubt about one thing in California politics: Gov. Schwarzenegger is willing to die on the cross of budget reform.

My conversations with people inside and outside the administration, and a review of news leaks in advance of the governor's revised budget proposal this afternoon, make it clear that he is doubling down on budget reform. For a man with a reputation for twisting with political winds, he is doing the opposite here, trying again to pursue reforms as he did in 2004 and 2005. He is so determined to get voters to adopt his budget reform (a spending-side proposal based on a rainy day fund and more power for governors to make mid-year cuts) that he is risking what's left of his governorship.

One piece of this approach is undeniable smart, As the Sacramento Bee reports, he's pulled back from his proposal to include education in spending cuts and is now proposing to meet the Prop 98 minimum on education. His cuts were fiscally responsible -- but they were politically poisonous to his project of budget reform. By dropping the unpopular cuts, he is making a strategic move that signals his top priority--budget reform or bust.

California voters approved Indian casinos in 1998 and have generally defended the rights of the state's more than 50 tribes to expand since then. In Februrary of this year, voters approved four contested compacts that allowed tribes to expand. These compacts ratified the Schwarzenegger administration's strategy in Indian gaming: allow expansion in return for increased payments to the state. The governor has sought this money to help fund transportation and ease the state's budget problem.

But the recent ruling of a federal judge has put this approach at risk. In a case brought by the Rincon band in San Diego County, a judge found that Schwarzenegger's demand for more funds amounts to "illegal taxes." The judge ordered the state and tribe to reach an agreement on a compact by the end of June, or he would send the best offers of each to an arbitrator, who would then decide. This story from the Union-Tribune describes Schwarzenegger's effort to appeal the decision.