Ballot Measures

Once a decade, California starts over at 1 in the numbering of its ballot measures. This November's ballot thus provides a fresh start. After Prop 99 in June, we start with Prop 1 this November. The Secretary of State is out with the numbers of all 11 measures on the November ballot. Here they are:

The big ones to watch are Prop 2 (the Humane Society is the champion of direct democracy), Prop 8 (the much talked about gay marriage initiative), and Prop 11 (the redistricting measure).

Prop. 1: High speed rail bond.

Prop. 2: Humane Society farm animal confinement initiative

Prop 3: Children's hospital bond

Prop 4: parental notificatoin before minors have an abortion.

Prop 5: lighter sentences, easing of parole restrictions for non-violent offenders.

Prop 6: Anti-gang initiative

Prop 7: Initiative to require utilities to generate 20 percent of power from renewable sources by 2010.

Prop 8: anti-gay marriage initiative.

Prop 9: a crime victims' bill of rights.

Prop 10: $5 billion alternative fuel bond.

Prop 11: Redistricting reform.

Friend of the blog Robert Greene breaks them down -- including news that four initiatives have qualified -- at the LA Times' Opinion LA.

This is also posted at Fox and Hounds Daily, a new news and commentary site focusing on California and business.

There is no longer any doubt about one thing in California politics: Gov. Schwarzenegger is willing to die on the cross of budget reform.

My conversations with people inside and outside the administration, and a review of news leaks in advance of the governor's revised budget proposal this afternoon, make it clear that he is doubling down on budget reform. For a man with a reputation for twisting with political winds, he is doing the opposite here, trying again to pursue reforms as he did in 2004 and 2005. He is so determined to get voters to adopt his budget reform (a spending-side proposal based on a rainy day fund and more power for governors to make mid-year cuts) that he is risking what's left of his governorship.

One piece of this approach is undeniable smart, As the Sacramento Bee reports, he's pulled back from his proposal to include education in spending cuts and is now proposing to meet the Prop 98 minimum on education. His cuts were fiscally responsible -- but they were politically poisonous to his project of budget reform. By dropping the unpopular cuts, he is making a strategic move that signals his top priority--budget reform or bust.

California voters approved Indian casinos in 1998 and have generally defended the rights of the state's more than 50 tribes to expand since then. In Februrary of this year, voters approved four contested compacts that allowed tribes to expand. These compacts ratified the Schwarzenegger administration's strategy in Indian gaming: allow expansion in return for increased payments to the state. The governor has sought this money to help fund transportation and ease the state's budget problem.

But the recent ruling of a federal judge has put this approach at risk. In a case brought by the Rincon band in San Diego County, a judge found that Schwarzenegger's demand for more funds amounts to "illegal taxes." The judge ordered the state and tribe to reach an agreement on a compact by the end of June, or he would send the best offers of each to an arbitrator, who would then decide. This story from the Union-Tribune describes Schwarzenegger's effort to appeal the decision.

Raising taxes is almost always difficult politically. When it comes to tax-hiking ballot measures, the trick is to find a politically popular cause to fund. Sam Page, a candidate for lieutenant governor in Missouri, may have come up with the best possible tax ballot measure so far. He proposes a ballot mesaure to raise sales taxes by one-eighth of a cent to fund "veterans' homes, services and programs." Just try to be the poor soul organizing a no campaign against that. It's too late to qualify measures for November, so the legislature would have to put it on the ballot. Look for politicians in other states to copy this.

It looks more and more likely that California voters will have to bless whatever budget and revenue plans that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the state legislature agree upon to deal with the state's rapidly escalating budget crisis. Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders are pursuing a privatization of the lottery in order to produce more revenues, but changes to the lottery, which was established by ballot initiative, would likely require voter approval.

Courtesy once again of Robert Greene of the LA Times.

Robert Greene, editorial writer for the Los Angeles Times and friend of the blog, has put together the following post with links to municipal election results in Los Angeles County cities from Arcadia to Whittier.