Ballot Initiative

Last night on the nationally syndicated radio show Beyond the Beltway, I discussed the problems with the No on 8 campaign that led to victory for the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage.

Jennifer Fearing, who managed the winning campaign for Prop 2, the California ballot initiative on farm animal confinement, read this earlier post from Fiona Hutton, consultant to No on 2, and wanted to respond. Here's what she said:

The Prop 8 election returns are in, but the campaign isn't over. Opponents of Prop 8 -- that is, supporters of same-sex marriage -- staged protests on the west side of Los Angeles yesterday afternoon and evening., temporarily shutting down traffic on two major thoroughfares. Protestors targeted Mormons with signs and marched on the Mormon temple on Santa Monica Boulevard.

If you were disappointed by last night's results showing a victory for a ban on same-sex marriage in California, brace yourself for what comes next. By various estimates, more than 11,000 gay couples have tied the knot in the state. (The real number is probably higher). While it would be wonderful if those marriages are not challenged in court, it's certain they will be. Legal experts are divided on whether the marriages will be ruled invalid because of the now enacted constitutional ban.  And the initiative itself, Prop 8, could be thrown out by the courts. But there's a decent chance that thousands of married gay couples will have their marriages cancelled.

What to do? First off, supporters of same-sex marriage need to highlight the issue and fight like hell in the courts. But policy makers also need to plan for the possibility that the court fight will fail. The real trouble is that some gay couples replaced their domestic partnerships with marriages. So a cancellation of their marriage could leave them without any formal legal bond. It might be wise to enact legislation -- and I would hope that supporters of Prop 8 (that is opponents of same-sex marriage) would support this -- that would automatically transfer any and all cancelled marriages back into domestic partnerships. Unless of course, the couple themselves opt out.

Bans on same-sex marriage appear to have won in Florida and Arizona. And Prop 8, the California ban on gay marriage, is leading early, with nearly 53 percent of the vote. That number will likely shrink as the night goes on. Early tallies are heavy with mail ballots; those voters tend to be older, and age is the best predictor of how people vote on same-sex marriage. It's possible that this race will remain so tight that we may not know the outcome for days, if not weeks.

Steve Peace, a former California budget director, had recently filed an initiative to end partisan elections in the state. He has now withdrawn it, according to the Secretary of State's office. I've contacted the firm listed as the contact point for the initiative, but no response.

The campaign around Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage, keeps getting nastier. The No on 8 says in a email that their web site was subject to a "denial of service" attack -- a cyber hacking technique in which mutltiple users flood a web site or server to overwhelm it, forcing it to shut down. Such attacks knocked the site down and may have hurt fundraising. Both sides of the Prop 8 fight are raising money over the web at a fast pace.  The Yes on 8 campaign told the Associated Press its officials had nothing to do with it. Authorities are investigating.

One wouldn't think that's not a tough assignment, but the campaign in favor of Prop 4, the California initiative to require parental notification before a minor receives an abortion, has seen fit to give its supporters specific instructions on where to find Latinos. Apparently, Latinos hang out at WalMart and at church.

Below is an actual email from the campaign -- yes, your blogger swears it's real -- urging voters to find Latino voters in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. Enjoy.

The fear is that a big turnout among African-American and Latino voters for Obama might give Prop 8, the same-sex marriage ban, a crucial boost. Some polling shows broader support for Prop 8 among such voters than in the electorate as a whole. The dynamic also might boost Prop 4, the California initiative to require parental notification before an abortion is performed on a minor.

Watching TV in California these days is enough to make you physically ill. The problem? The ads for and against Prop 2, the initiative to regulate farm animal confinement. The Yes ads, produced by the Humane Society of the United States (perhaps the leading practitioner and defender of ballot initiative campaigns in the country), have -- in a small box on the screen (the full screen was deemed too disturbing for viewers) -- video of farm animals in distress. The no campaign warns about salmonella and other diseases if Prop 2 passes and animals are free to walk around. The yes campaign has responded to this by saying that the current use of caged animals actually contributes to salmonella. So, both sides are talking about salmonella.