Arnold Schwarzenegger

The California Teachers Assn. is the 500-pound strongman of the state's politics. Republicans like to criticize the union, and Democrats privately grumble about its power. But whether you like the union's policies or not, it has a better record of delivering politically than any politician or any other interest group in California. In a state full of talkers, CTA is a doer.

I recently mused on Facebook about which might arrive first: Christmas or a new budget agreement for California, which is already more than two months late. A conservative friend quickly responded with his hope that Christmas would come first.

You might call the Republican legislative strategy in California the Doomsday Approach. And it's not a threat. Republicans seem more than happy to usher in the closing of state government. California will run out of cash within a month. It's not at all clear that the governor could keep the state open if that happened. But for Republicans, there might be very little to lose. The party is already terribly unpopular in the state. There's little hope of any change in that. Nearly all of the Republican legislators are insulated from being kicked out of office in November by a gerrymander. And Republicans have little hope of gaining any new seats from Democrats because of the same gerrymander. Republicans already have thrown their best-known, best-liked politician, Arnold Schwarzenegger, under the bus, all but dismissing him as a Democrat. The California GOP is stuck at the bottom of the pit. So why not blow up the state? There's nowhere to go but up.

California Secretary of State Debra Bowen appears to have run out of patience with the legislature and the governor, and who can blame her? They have talked of adding measures to the November ballot as part of a budget deal, but there's been no deal and they've ignored all deadlines. The governor and lawmakers seemed to believe that they could simply waive the deadlines in the law and regulations.

This afternoon, Bowen's office issued a statement in which she closed the door on waiving deadlines to add measures. "We are at the point where that is unacceptable," she said in the statement. She has advised county election officials to move forward with their November general election preparations without the governor and the legislature. Bowen's making the right call--it's essential to get the November ballots right, and that takes time. But it also deepens the state's budget stalemate. The goal of getting measures on the November ballot offered one of the few time pressures that seemed to mean anything to our procrastinating elected leaders. Now, that bit of time pressure is gone. If there are going to be ballot measures as part of any compromise, they would appear on a special election ballot in 2009, if the governor chose to call one, or on the next scheduled statewide ballot, the June 2010 primary.

Shane Goldmacher at the Sacramento Bee has this excellent item about the problems being created for the November election by the legislature and governor's ability to reach a budget deal. Such a deal would likely include a ballot measures, and the deadlines have been blown. State and county officials are worried about the ability to print and ship ballots. A politically important deadline is upon us. Next Friday, Sept. 5, is the day that international ballots go out to troops serving overseas.

Gov. Schwarzenegger, in a bid to pressure the legislature to adopt a budget, has refused to sign any and all legislation that doesn't have to do with the budget. Yesterday, however, he backed off, telling lawmakers in a letter -- here courtesy of the Sacramento Bee --  that he would make an exception for four bills that have to do with ballot measures. One would make changes to a high-speed rail bond that is already on the November ballot. Another is a water bond that he has long sought. In the letter, he also asked legislators to send him measures related to the budget -- on borrowing against future lottery revenues, and on establishing a rainy day fund -- so they could be placed on the November ballot. The ballot deadline passed more than a week ago, but lawmakers and the governor seem to believe they can  suspend some legal requirements and sneak a few things in. I'm not at all sure they're right. At this point, they are banking on the full cooperation of county officials who administer elections, and the state's habit of failing to reimburse them for the full costs of extra elections and last-minute changes means that some county officials will only be as cooperative as the law requires.

Now California's legislative leaders support Gov. Schwarzenegger's call for a special election in 2009, which came after a call by your blogger for just such an election. Memo to the consultants, pollsters, mail firms, etc.  who profit from ballot measures: As you're writing out your thank-you notes, please remember there is only one "t" in Mathews.

There's nothing more fun for blockbuster democracy types than a special election. In such cases, the initiatives are the real stars. And, apparently leaping at a suggestion first offered on this blog, Gov. Schwarzenegger on Thursday put the possibility of a special election on the table, saying he might have to call one if the budget drags on.

Why? Because ballot measures changing the budget process -- and perhaps the state lottery -- likely will be part of any budget compromise. And the deadline for adding measures to the November ballot appears to have passed.

Most political consultants I know think that Schwarzenegger would be crazy to call a special election. It would remind people of the 2005 special he called (For you non-Californians out there, it turned into a debacle: all eight measures on the ballot went down to defeat, including four that Schwarzenegger championed). Measures that otherwise might garner support could have a tough time on an '09 ballot simply because they are associated with a special election.

But I think a special could be a healthy exercise. It would force the state to focus on its budget problems. And it also could provide an opportunity for the public to consider badly needed tax reform measures. If there is to be a special, Assembly Speaker Karen Bass ought to insist that any constitutional changes produced by her tax reform effort be a part of the ballot line-up.

In a news conference, a frustrated and angry Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger blasted legislators of both parties for failing to reach a budget compromise ("shameful") and offered another budget proposal. This is unusual. California governors typically release two budget proposals -- one in January, and one in May. But the governor has put forward a compromise plan that includes a temporary sales tax increase -- violating his promise not to raise taxes -- in exchange for budget reforms. He said he was taking a risk: "I'm stepping over the line here," he said.

There was a take-it-or-leave-it feel to the session, which was cut short after four questions. He said it was time for budget "dialogue" to stop. "This is not part of the kabuki or anything like that," said the governor, all but demanding his proposal be passed.

Other highlights:

-Schwarzenegger admitted openly that his first attempt to fix the state's budget problem--the ballot measures Propositions 57 and 58, which were approved by voters in 2004--had been a failure. "This year is coming out clearly that our budget reform that we attempted in 2004 with Props 57 and 58 does not work," he said. 

California is stuck. More than two months have passed since the constitutional deadline to adopt a state budget for the '08-'09 fiscal year, and there's still no budget. What's worse, potential compromises all involve adding measures to this November's ballot. And the deadline for adding such measures already has passed -- it was Saturday. It's unlikely that legislative Republicans, who as the minority party are able to hold things up because California requires a two-thirds vote for budget passage, will relent on their demand for a rainy day fund and some sort of spending limit. Such changes are constitutional and require a vote of the people. Plus, Democrats are banking on money from borrowing against lottery revenues to pay for programs. Since the lottery was enacted by ballot initiative, these kinds of changes to the lottery require another vote of the people.

So what's the way out? Here's a fearless prediction: California's legislature will pass and the governor will sign a budget sometime in the next month. And that budget likely will include ballot measures on spending and the lottery as part of the compromise. But those measures can't appear on this November's ballot. Time has run out. Instead, they'll appear on the next scheduled statewide ballot -- in June 2010. In effect, the California's '08-'09 budget fight might not end until then. 

Writing at Huffington Post, my New America colleague Jim Pinkerton, who as a policy aide to the first President Bush helped Gov. Schwarzenegger in his work as the country's fitness czar, advances an idea for the governor's next act: as the country's "N N Czar." And in Pinkerton's scenario, he leaves California next year, before his term is up.