Arnold Schwarzenegger

Gov. Schwarzenegger, appearing Sunday on ABC's This Week, indicated he was inclined to protect the marriages of gay couples who legally tied the knot this year. These marriages could be at risk because of the passage of Prop 8. Schwarzenegger offers the caveat that such an order must be legal, and that he must first confer with Attorney General Jerry Brown, who has said he will defend Prop 8 while also protecting the existing marriages. Here's the exchange with interviewer George Stephanopolous.

STEPHANOPOULOS: In the meantime, some legal experts have suggested that you should, if you believe that, issue an edict, a ruling, that says that the marriages that have already taken place in California are absolutely legal. Will you do that?

SCHWARZENEGGER: Well, I have to get together with Jerry Brown, our attorney general, and see what the legal opinion is, because he's my lawyer, basically. And so, we always do those things together.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But you're inclined to do it?

SCHWARZENEGGER: It's a conversation that I can have with him about the -- if that's the legal way to go.

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Ohio today, campaigning for and with John McCain. People have been asking me: why? It's a good question. The governor has nice things to say about Obama (even suggesting he might work for a President Obama someday), disagrees with McCain and the national Republican party on issues, and likes to associate himself with winners, not losers.

The answer boils down to two words: habit and loyalty. The governor of California is a creature of habit. In 1988 and 2004, Schwarzenegger campaigned in Columbus, Ohio -- where he has business interests, including a share in a suburban shopping mall and an annual fitness convention and bodybuilding tournament known as The Arnold -- on the Friday before election day. This year, he goes again to central Ohio the Friday before election.

But the other motivating factor is loyalty. Schwarzenegger doesn't get much credit for being loyal; he's generally thought of by people in the political sphere as more than a little disloyal. But in his personal relationships, he's remarkably loyal. His friends today were his friends 20 years ago. And McCain has been very loyal to him. The weekend before the special election in 2005 ,when it was clear to everyone (except perhaps the hyper-optimistic Schwarzenegger) that his initiatives were going to lose, McCain flew to California and rode on Schwarzenegger's campaign bus through the Inland Empire. McCain backed Schwarzenegger when the governor was in political trouble. Today, Arnold returns the favor.

The governor has now taken positions on 10 of the 12 measures on the ballot. (He's neutral on Propositions 6 and 9, both of which have to do with crime). He's no on Prop 8, the same-sex marriage ban, and yes on Prop 4, which would require that a parent or guardian be notified before a minor has an abortion. The full list here via the Sacramento Bee.

Variety, yes Variety, asks why Gov. Schwarzenegger hasn't cut an ad against Prop 8. It's an interesting question, not clearly answered by the story. The governor is unpopular, so maybe the No on 8 campaign has concluded that Arnold won't help. Schwarzenegger has largely avoided taking on divisive social issues, so maybe the reticence is his. 

Redistricting reform is always a tough sell--too complicated, and the partisan voters on both sides are too skeptical. But Prop 11, the California initiative to take the power to draft legislative districts away from the legislature, has the best chance of any such measure. As opposed to 2005, when a redistricting reform initiative failed badly under an onslaught from public employee unions, the opposition this time is relatively weak and poorly funded. But the initiative has far less than majority support in public polls. Why? The campaign messaging is a mess. 

What's the problem? The campaign's ads are anti-politician blasts at the legislature for their many sins. Press conference seek to gin up populist anger. But this message doesn't match the reality of the measure and the folks leading the campaign. The most prominent backer is, of all things, an unpopular politician -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is today getting attention for fundraising he's doing in Florida for the measure. And the campaign is even boasting of the support of non-Californian politicians such as New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg. The billionaire mayor was accurately called a hypocrite in the New York press this week for coming to Los Angeles to campaign  for Prop 11 (becaues of the importance of the will of the people) even as he seeks to avoid a popular referendum on a plan that would extend term limits and permit him to run for a third term as mayor. 

The California Correctional Peace Officers Association had filed a notice of recall against Schwarzenegger and a proposed petition to circulate. (The petition was not approved, and the union had been expected to file a revised petition this week). Now a spokesman for the prison guards' union tells the AP there wasn't much point to the recall. Even it succeeded, Schwarzenegger would be removed from office only for the final lame-duck months of his term.

This is a smart move by the union. The governor, a strong foe of the union, not only would have survived a vote but also might have gained new political capital as a result.

I've spent the past 24 hours in Sacramento. The main piece of scuttlebut, from several sources: that Gov. Schwarzenegger, as part of the special election he's expected to call next year (likely fall), will pursue an initiative that would put in place the health care compromise he reached with then-Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez in late 2006.

This raises all kinds of questions. One is a practical question: how to turn massive legislation into an initiative short enough that signature gatherers won't hurt their backs carrying it around California? Others are: 1. how the initiative might be structured to reduce the budget impact, given the international economic crisis and the state's budget woes. 2. And what kind of counter-initiatives might liberal groups such as the California Nurses Assn. (advocates of single payer) or more conservative groups (who don't like the fees or the mandates in Schwarzenegger's plan) pursue on the same ballot?

Would you buy $4 billion in bonds from this man? That's the question facing Gov. Schwarzenegger. He's made himself the voice of a radio effort to sell bonds to cover the state's short-term operating expenses. It's a tough time to sell bonds, in the middle of a credit crisis. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services has publicly questioned whether the state will be able to sell the bonds. S&P put California's bonds on negative credit watch as well. (California's credit rating also has suffered from persistent deficits).

If Schwarzenegger can convince people to buy the bonds, it would prevent the state from encountering a cash crisis in the next few weeks, as some, including S&P, appear to be anticipating. But if he can't, it's a body blow to the state -- and to Schwarzenegger's credibility. The S&P report says: "Without a successful infusion of cash over the next six to eight weeks, however, we believe, the state may be required to defer spending by executive order, schedule a special session of the legislature and/or possibly slow payments to local units, including school districts." (The S&P does end with an oddly hopeful note; California is so accustomed to managing bad budgets that it will probably muddle through this as well.)

The governor considers himself a top-notch salesman. This may be the most important test of salesmanship that he's ever faced.

Here's a link to the S&P report. A free registration is required.

Attached is the full text of the letter rejecting the first recall petition submitted by the prison guards' union:

Talk about timing. Today is the fifth anniversary of the vote to recall Gray Davis and elect Arnold Schwarzenegger governor. And today, the Secretary of State's office rejected the first petition submitted to recall Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. The petition, submitted by the prison guards' union, failed to include Schwarzenegger's official statement in response, as is required. The mistake is a simple one, but somewhat understandable. By keeping the recall petition to one page ,the union may be able to circulate it more easily and inexpensively.

This is not the end of the story. The union now has the right to alter and re-submit its petition.