American Strategy Program

(photo of Paul Wolfowitz and Steve Clemons at Australian Prime Minister's Official Residence in Sydney -- Kirribilli House, 16 August 2009. When taken, Paul Wolfowitz remarked, "I don't know whose reputation will take more of a hit for this picture -- yours or mine. . ."

Steve Clemons directs the New America Foundation/American Strategy Program. This post originally appeared at The Washington Note.

Paul Wolfowitz penned a provocative critique of foreign policy realism in this week's Foreign Policy magazine.

Four responses to Wolfowitz were posted online last night in a series called "Is Paul Wolfowitz for Real?"

Ben Katcher is a Policy Analyst with the New America Foundation/American Strategy Program. This post originally appeared at The Washington Note.

Over at Stratfor, George Friedman has a very interesting piece on the possibility of closer ties between Russia and Iran.

Friedman lays out in detail the key geopolitical factors that are shaping the Iran-Russia-U.S. triangle.

Essentially, Friedman's tentative conclusion is that Washington's aggressive policies toward both Moscow and Tehran are bringing the two hydrocarbon exporters closer together.

Meanwhile, in a related move, Russia this month secured access to Turkish waters for its proposed South Stream natural gas pipeline. South Stream will allow Russia to export gas to Europe without going through Ukraine, with which it has very frosty relations at the moment.

Ben Katcher is a Policy Analyst with the New America Foundation/American Strategy Program. This post originally appeared at The Washington Note.

Lehigh University International Relations Department Chair Rajan Menon recently published an informative report for the Century Foundation called "The China-Russia Relationship: What It Involves, Where It Is Headed, And How It Matters For The United States."

The report provides a useful framework for conceptualizing the relationships among China, Russia, and the United States.

Menon makes a persuasive case that while the "strategic partnership" between Russia and China is based in large part on a shared aversion to unchecked American power, a full-fledged anti-American alliance is unlikely to develop.

The news last week of the alleged killing of Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud has sparked a round of confused and contradictory messages from various parties.

American and Pakistani officials claim with more and more certainty that Mehsud is dead. Meanwhile, elements of the Pakistani Taliban admitted his death and announced a shura, or gathering, to decide a new Taliban leader, while others strongly asserted that Mehsud is alive, kicking, and making videos to prove it.

While there is at this writing no DNA proof that Mehsud is dead, the strong message from American and Pakistani officials, coupled with persistent reports of fighting between Taliban leaders Hakimullah Mehsud and Wali Ur-Rehman leads me to believe that Mehsud is either dead or out of commission.

Ben Katcher is a Policy Analyst with the New America Foundation/American Strategy Program. This post originally appeared at The Washington Note.

In the aftermath of Vice President Biden's visit to Georgia last month, Alexander Melikishvili over at the Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia blog provides an informative review of the Obama administration's unfolding Georgia policy.

Citing a variety of recent congressional testimonies, Melikishvili makes a persuasive case that the Obama team intends to exercise more caution than the Bush administration in terms of the kinds of military assistance that it is prepared to provide to the Saakashvili regime.

Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia Celeste A. Wallander's stated this bluntly in her recent congressional testimony:

President Lula of Brazil meets with President Obama. Official White House photo.

Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson (ret.) served as the Chief of Staff to Sec. Colin Powell at the State Department. He is now the Pamela C. Harriman Professor of Government at the College of William and Mary. This post first appeared at The Havana Note.

London's International Institute for the Study of Cuba recently carried this announcement on its web page:

HAVANA, Cuba, June 29: The Cuban Council of State passed on June 26th, 2009, a new Decree-Law number 268 entitled: "Reform of the Labor Regime" which was published by the daily Granma newspaper as an Official Note…. The law allows for workers to have more than one job and for students to work in part-time jobs. It also frees up enterprises in Havana to hire workers from other provinces directly instead of them having to be hired through the state employment agency.

Steve Clemons standing next to statue commemorating Xu Xiake (1587-1641), who chronicled his travels throughout China during the late Ming Dynasty. This picture was taken at Liyuan Park on the edge of Lake Taihu in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China. (photo credit: Peter Pi)

Steve Clemons directs the New America Foundation/American Strategy Program. This post originally appeared at The Washington Note.

For those interested in US-China relations, here is a digital clip of a discussion in which I participated on the Diane Rehm Show yesterday.

Others on the panel including Albert Keidel, former acting director of the Department of Treasury's Office of East Asian Affairs; Ambassador Stapleton Roy who now directs the Kissinger Institute on China and the US at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and myself.

Susan Page of USA Today moderated the discussion.

-- Steve Clemons

Much of the news and analysis regarding Turkey's negotiations to enter the European Union for the past few years has been increasingly negative and doubtful of Turkey's quest for admittance. But my colleague Benjamin Katcher offers a great reminder of why it is important for both sides to patiently pursue Turkey's accession in his article today in the World Politics Review.

Katcher indicates that the current negative feelings between Europe and Turkey as well as Turkey's recent economic success should not imply that Turkey would be better off without Europe, and Europe better off without Turkey. He writes:

Steve Clemons directs the New America Foundation/American Strategy Program. This post originally appeared at The Washington Note. 

Former AIG Chairman Maurice "Hank" Greenberg waited outside the Ritz Carlton in a very long line of well-heeled Washingtonians waiting to be allowed by the organizers to access air-conditioning and get into the event ballroom. I clicked my iPhone weather application and it was 89 degrees outside -- high humidity. Lots of old people in that line.

The event was organized by the National Committee on US-China Relations, the US-China Business Council and a long roster of co-sponsoring groups.

Some DC political players in the line deserved the heat -- others didn't.

But what the powerful and connected were there for was the power dinner of the two day long US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue.

The luminaries were out in full force. One seasoned observer of American foreign policy and a probable heavyweight Obama emissary one day told me before the dinner began: "Never have so many of the great and mighty been assembled to hear so little. . ."

The recently turned-off ticker sign at the U.S. Interests Section in Havana. This post originally appeared  at The Havana Note.

I want to share a little nugget of my analysis that helps to get past the zero-sum conditionality question that my colleagues John McCauliffe and Phil Peters have recently posted on.

I think we can describe the current U.S. policy as having the following attributes:

1. Rhetorical Caution
2. Regulatory Inertia
3. Operational License