Top Two Primary

Study shows "top two" could elect more extremists, not moderates

Steven Hill — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 19:55:00 -0400

Here is some brand new analysis from Washington state results that might shed light on the efficacy of the top two primary, which many are promoting as a good thing for CA. It is especially directed at whether the top two would elect more moderates -- or more extremists? This evidence below suggests it's a bit of a crapshoot, the top two primary could as easily elect more extremists as elect more moderates.

In taking a look at official WA state election results at http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/Results.aspx? for last year's primary, you can see there are basically four categories of results for the 98 house races and 25 senate races.

In the first category, which has by far the vast majority of races, one candidate (usually an incumbent) is either uncontested or is so far in the lead with anywhere from 53 percent to over 70 percent of the vote and a huge enough lead that it's obvious they will win in the general (November) election as well. That includes 24 races uncontested in the primary, and 3 with only token write-in opposition. The practical impact in those races is no different from what we have now in CA, as I outlined recently in my Los Angeles Times oped.

In the second category, there were FIVE primaries that were extremely close with only two candidates (one D, one R) in both the primary and general elections. Not a huge number of close races for 123 races.

In the third category, there were TEN primaries with 3-5 candidates, where the front runner had between 40-50 percent of the vote, and in 7 of those races the expected thing happens -- the front runner has a fairly solid lead and wins by picking up votes from the supporters of those eliminated, since most of those districts have a pretty clear partisan tilt. In two of those races the second place candidate comes from behind and wins, but that's completely expected since the third place candidate is from the same party in a district that is tilted toward their party. And in one race, a clear swing district in which the frontrunning Dem has 50.4 percent to 37.5 percent for the frontrunning Rep, with another Rep in third with 12 percent, the Rep eventually wins with 51.6 percent (beating a conservative Dem). A little sizzle there, but that's only one race in a swing district. And in all of the races, these results also would not be any different than what we have now in CA.

It's in the fourth category where things perhaps are most interesting. These races illustrate why a split field may result in EXTREME candidates advancing to the top two, not moderates. In this category, there are 5 primary races -- out of 123 races -- where there are multicandidate fields of 4-7 candidates where the front runner has less than 40 percent in a pretty split field.

For example, if you look at District 7, Position 1 you see there were 5 candidates, ALL REPUBLICANS, and the top two in the primary had 26.7 percent and 26.4 percent. In such a situation, with the top two having such a low percent of the vote, it's very possible that one or both of those candidates may not be moderate at all, they could be extremist. Yet one of them will win in the general election, since it was a heavily GOP district.

In the District 40 Senate race, there are 7 candidates, 6 Dems and 1 Rep. The Rep finishes first with 37.8 percent and a Dem is second with 28.3 percent. That Dem could easily be non-moderate, could be a far left Dem with such a low percent of the vote. But in the Nov election the Dem wins with 58.6 percent of the vote, since most Dem voters of course fall in line and vote for the "brand," i.e. the Democrat.

Here's another, District 14, Position 1: seven candidates, 6 Reps and 1 Dem, Dem finishes first with 30 percent with the highest Rep having 22 percent -- with such a low percent, that Rep could easily be an extreme candidate. Then that Rep went on to win in November, since it's a Rep district, with 53 percent of the vote.

District 8, Position 1: 5 candidates, one Dem and 4 Reps, Dem finishes first with 38.2 percent, the top Rep has only 19percent -- extremist or moderate? Then the Rep wins in Nov with 53percent.

This kind of "split vote" dynamic is reminiscent of the strategy Tom DeLay followed for years, providing enough money and firepower to help his extreme Rep candidates win a low plurality victory in the primary over more moderate Reps. And then that candidate would easily win the November election in a heavily Rep district.

It's also a reminder of how David Duke, a former top Ku Klux Klan leader, got into the top two in the 1991 Louisiana race for governor with only 32 percent of the vote. It's also how Jean-Marie Le Pen, a far right politician in France, got into the top two in a recent French presidential election with only 18 percent of the vote. Split votes are a common occurence in plurality elections, and the top two uses a plurality election to determine the top two finishers.

So when I look at these results, I don't see that very much was gained in WA from use of the top two. First, most races are still vastly noncompetitive and predictable, as they were before WA had the top two (and like CA has now). And second, in the five races where you have some real voter "choice" going on, with multiple candidates and a wide open field, the final results are a crapshoot with candidates getting into the top two with low plurality vote totals that can just as easily be reached by extreme candidates as by moderates.

Possible California Budget Deal Could Put 8, Count 'Em 8 Measures on the Ballot

Joe Mathews — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 22:49:00 -0500

I'm thinking of suing the state for legislative pay. As a voter. To secure the vote of Republican state senator Abel Maldonado, a holdout whose vote is needed to pass a massive budget compromise bill in California, Democrats are considering Maldonado's demand for three ballot measures, the Sacramento Bee reports. The measures would create an open, or "top two" primary for the state, prohibit legislative pay raises if the budget is in deficit, and prevent lawmakers from receiving salaries if the budget is not passed on time.

Those three measures would be on top of the five other ballot measures required by other aspects of the deal. In all, Californians would have to vote on eight measures that are part of a mega-compromise. None of the measures are simple. They include changes to the state's education funding formula, the reversal of previous ballot initiatives on early childhood education and mental health, a new spending cap for the state, and a plan to borrow against future lottery revenues.

Last Minute Clean Up: Washington Ballot, USDA Ads Stopped, and Voting of the Foreclosed

Joe Mathews — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 21:07:00 -0400

Before I get on the plane tomorrow, here's a few short items that I missed this week.

THE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF OPEN PRIMARY: Under Washington state's "top two" open primary law, candidates are permitted to list their own party preference on the ballot. But Democrats, believing that the Republican gubernatorial nominee is obscuring his unpopular party affiliation with a ballot reference to GOP, went to court to demand that the Republican be listed as a Republican.

VOTING OF THE FORECLOSED: In the most important political story of the week not related to the Wall Street bailout, there are signs that voters who lost their homes to foreclosure and haven't changed their address on voter registration documents may be systematically challenged at the polls -- to prevent them from voting -- by Republican operatives.

USDA ADS STOPPED: The U.S. Department of Agriculture had been running ads that seemed designed to oppose Prop. 2, the California ballot initiative to regulate how farm animals are confined. This week, a federal judge told the agency that, as a government agency, it couldn't take sides in a campaign.

Oregon "Top Two" Primary Turns In Sigs

Joe Mathews — Fri, 23 May 2008 17:49:00 -0400

Sponsors of an Oregon initiative to establish a "top two" primary, the U.S. Supreme Court-friendly version of the non-partisan or "open" primary, began to turn in signatures Friday. In a top-two primary, all candidates appear (with party affiliations if their party is formally recognized by the state) on the primary ballot. The top two vote getters advance to the general election. (Ballot Access News, via ballotpedia).

Tuesday Round Up: School's Out on Nevada Election Day

Joe Mathews — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 12:52:00 -0400

TOO COOL FOR SCHOOL: Here's an important and under-reported story: Nevada's schools will be closed on Election Day in November. That should boost turnout in a swing presidential state. And it also could give a boost to the Nevada teachers' unions, who are attempting to raise gaming taxes to boost education funds. Not having to teach that day will boost turnout. Also, about 800 of the poll workers could be students, says the state's registrar of voters. In related news, a Nevada judge rules that two measures to tax gaming to provide funds for education can remain on the ballot. The judge thinks they make little sense, but says that the voters have the right to decide that for themselves.

AG'S DOMAIN: Some agriculture interests are getting aggressive in opposing Prop 98, one of the two measures on June's California ballot that would put restrictions on eminent domain. The Sacramento Bee says that this represents a divide in the agriculture community, since the California Farm Bureau is one of the initiative's backers. (Prop 98's restrictions include tigher limitations on using condemnation for private purposes and on retn control than its competitor, Prop 99).

COLORADO CORPORATE FRAUD: The proponent of the Colorado initiative making business executives criminally responsible for corporate fraud explains himself.

MAINE MISS: The Maine initiative to establish a casino has lost its campaign manager, according to ballotpedia.

A DIFFERENT WAY OF PUBLIC FINANCING: An Alaska legislative committee has added money to the state budget for education campaigns that appear to be designed to fight off a ballot initiative lawmakers don't much like. Since states by law often have to provide unbiased information -- most notably in voter pamphlets -- this action is a mistake and should be quickly reversed.

OREGON TOP TWO ADVANCES: An initiative to establish a "top two" primary system in Oregon appears likely to qualify for the November ballot. This style of "open" (that is, multi-party) primary has recently received some backing from the U.S. Supreme Court, which struck down previous open primaries. Here's a description of how it works.