Same Sex Marriage

Oppositions to Gay Marriage Ban Grows In Poll; Redistricting Initiative Also Weak

Joe Mathews — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 12:57:00 -0400

Fifty-four percent of likely voters oppose Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage, in a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California. (Note to those clicking on the poll link: The findings are first reported on page 7 of the poll document). Only 40 percent support the measure.

Initiatives that face that kind of opposition two months before an election almost always lose. But the PPIC offers a few caveats. Public attitudes continue to be split -- 47 to 47 -- on the question of whether gay couples should be permitted to marry. Those numbers haven't budged in three years. And the poll finds that opponents of same-sex marriage care more about the issue than the supporters of same-sex marriage.

The same poll shows less than 50 percent support for Prop 4, an initiative to require parental notification before a minor secures an abortion. And the poll shows Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has far less than majority support. It's 39 percent yes, 36 percent no. And the measure fails to draw majority support from Democrats, Republicans or independents. Some of those involved in the measure have told me that redistricting has a chance this time because the campaign against it has been slow to organize and spend money. Perhaps. But it appears that a "no" campaign may not be required to defeat the measure. It could fail purely on the lingering skepticism of voters who have turned down similar redistricting proposals time after time.

One other note about Prop 11: It also could be hurt by its strong association with Gov. Schwarzenegger, who was talking up the idea again today in a column by the LA Times' George Skelton. His approval rating continues to drop, from 49 percent among likely voters in July to 43 percent now. Overall, his rating is in the 30s. A governor that unpopular is more likely to hurt the causes he endorses than he is to help them. And Prop 11's supporters seem intent on running an anti-politician campaign. Having the governor lead the charge contradicts that messaging. Schwarzenegger's views about redistricting are genuine and strongly held, but the best thing Schwarzenegger could do to help Prop 11 and the cause of redistricting reform is to keep his mouth shut.

Arkansas Ban On Gay Adoption Makes November Ballot

Joe Mathews — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 22:36:00 -0400

The initiative would ban adoption by all unmarried couples but is aimed at same-sex couples, its supporters acknowledge. The AP has more details here. The initiative also would bar adoption by legally married same-sex couples, because Arkansas does not recognize such marriages. Look for Wal-Mart and other major Arkansas companies to fight this on the grounds that it will prevent them from recruiting employees who happen to be gay and have children.

'Mormons For Marriage'

Joe Mathews — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 13:20:00 -0400

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, known as the Mormons, officially opposes same-sex marriage. But the church also acknowledges that members may think differently about the issue. Some of those members have put together a site, Mormons For Marriage, that is worth a look. The site says they stand "in respectful opposition" to California's Prop 8, the proposed initiative ban on same-sex marriage.

Churches Rising Up Against Same Sex Marriage?

Joe Mathews — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 18:02:00 -0400

The LA Times reports on a plane for churches of all kinds to plant Yes on Prop 8 signs all at the same time in September.

What Do Originalists Talk About When They Talk About Gay Marriage

Joe Mathews — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 13:52:00 -0400

The Federalist Society convened an on-line debate between legal scholars over same-sex marriage. It's a high-level and fascinating discussion. And paging Justice Scalia: there is a conservative case for same-sex marriage.

School Boards Taking Sides on Same-Sex Marriage Ban?

Joe Mathews — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 15:19:00 -0400

Writing in the LA Times, Jessica Garrison describes how school boards have become the latest battleground for endorsements in the campaigns for and against Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same sex marriage.

'What If You Couldn't Marry The Person You Love?'

Joe Mathews — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 20:49:00 -0400

Those words appear on the screen at the end of this TV ad, a spot in which no voice is spoken. The advertisement does not mention Prop 8, the California ballot initiative to ban same-sex marriage, but it doesn't have to. The organization that put together the ad and the donors funding its broadcast are all opponents of Prop 8. The ad is indirect and effective, making a classic "golden rule" argument. A bride approaches the marriage altar but is stopped by a variety of forces from reaching it. When the groom tries to go to her, he's held back by the grooming party.

The one problem: this ad represents a bit of a dodge around legal and campaign finance rules. Dan Morains explains this in the Los Angeles Times.

Is Gay Marriage Initiative Being Nationalized?

Joe Mathews — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 13:39:00 -0400

On the financial front, the answer is yes, as out of state money pours into both the campaigns for an against Prop 8, the California ballot initiative to ban same-sex marriage. But so far, the initiative campaign has been low-key on both sides, with appeals targeted to the very narrow set of Californians who remain undecided.

Polling suggests that the final result in Prop 8 will be close. And momentum is with opponents of the initiative (that is, supporters of same-sex marriage rights). If Prop's 8 defeat continues to look more and more likely as the election approaches in California, social conservative, Christian groups and others on the right may be tempted to turn their defeat to their advantage by nationalizing the gay marriage issue. The triumph of same-sex marriage in California would be pitched as a threat.

If they do, the Obama campaign and the Democratic party may have given them an opening. On talk radio and on Christian web sites, the big news this week has been the fact that the newly released Democratic party platform calls for repeal of the federal Defense of Marriage Act. That act prohibits any federal recognition of legal same-sex marriages. Since such marriages are now legal in Massachusetts and California, the federal act effectively makes the U.S. government blind to reality and prevents legally married couples from achieving true marriage equality. Gay married couples in California and Massachusetts are not considered married when they file their federal income taxes, seek federal benefits, or are counted by the Census Bureau.

While your blogger agrees with the Democrats' position, I worry that taking a position on the matter -- rather than remaining silent as same-sex marriage gains momentum in the states -- may be a strategic blunder. Those on the right who oppose same-sex marriage now have an opportunity to turn the combination of a California initiative defeat and the Democratic promise of a federal appeal to argue that a vote for Obama is a vote for legalizing same-sex marriage nationally. Such an argument would have some basis in truth--and potentially divide the party and hurt Obama's candidacy.

Prop 8 Backers Drop Challenge To Title

Joe Mathews — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 13:29:00 -0400

Supporters of the initiative to ban same-sex marriage in California had lost twice in court last week. They had claimed that the new title added by Attorney General Jerry Brown, which says the initiative "eliminates" a constitutional right, was argumentative. Now, says a spokeswoman, they'll let the people decide.

Prop 8 Ballot Title Won't Change

Joe Mathews — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 11:58:00 -0400

A judge has ruled that Atty Gen. Jerry Brown's new title for Prop 8, the California initiative to write a ban on same-sex marriage into the state constitution, can stay. The title says the initiative "eliminates the right to marry." The judge's decision is a big victory for opponents of Prop 8. Proponents are appealing.