Arizona

A Bit of Ballot Support For Health Care Reform

Joe Mathews — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 17:56:00 -0500

An Arizona ballot initiative that would have prevented health care reform proposals such as the one that passed in Massachusetts (and failed to pass in California) has been defeated. Early returns had shown that Prop 101 was too close to call, but supporters of the initiative all but conceded defeat yesterday. Other good news for would-be reformers: In Wisconsin, a non-binding referendum on whether the legislature should enact health care reform passed easily. The measure said that the reform should guarantee health care coverage for all that is as good as what state lawmakers receive. But no method of achieving such an outcome was specified.

Bad Night for Marriage Equality

Joe Mathews — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 04:48:00 -0500

Bans on same-sex marriage appear to have won in Florida and Arizona. And Prop 8, the California ban on gay marriage, is leading early, with nearly 53 percent of the vote. That number will likely shrink as the night goes on. Early tallies are heavy with mail ballots; those voters tend to be older, and age is the best predictor of how people vote on same-sex marriage. It's possible that this race will remain so tight that we may not know the outcome for days, if not weeks.

The End Of Initiatives?

Joe Mathews — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 13:10:00 -0400

That's what some are saying about Prop 105 in Arizona, and I tend to agree. The ballot initiative is being sold as an anti-tax measure, because a majority of those voting would no longer be enough to pass a tax or mandate government spending. Instead, a majority of all registered voters to pass a tax or spending. That's a high, high bar -- given that voter turnout in state elections hovers around 50 percent. But since, almost any initiative would require some government spending, this effectively end the initiative process in Arizona.

If this were to pass, and it has a great name "Majority Rules," the initiative also could have one unintended consequence: reducing the number of registered voters in Arizona. At the very least, interest groups and many leading politicians would have a major incentive to reduce the number of registered voters--precisely to make it easier for initiatives to pass.

Arizona Health Confusion

Joe Mathews — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 18:26:00 -0400

In drafting ballot initiatives, sponsors often face a choice. They can give their measure a better chance of winning by making it vague. A specific provision is easier to attack. But vague provisions often provoke legal challenges that block successful initiatives from taking effect. Such may be the case with Arizona's Prop 101, the ballot initiative designed to prevent the sort of health care reforms passed in Massachusetts and pursued in California. (Speciifically, the initiative bans the state from requiring people to get health care coverage, and would seem to bar a single-payer system). In this Arizona Republic story on the measure, critics suggest the initiative is so ambiguous that its real meaning might be decided in the courts.

And now the head of the state's indigent care system suggests the initiative, if passed, would force his department to close.

Report: Investigation of Arizona Signature Mess Is Criminal

Joe Mathews — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 06:36:00 -0400

The East Valley Tribune reports that the Arizona attorney general's office has launched a criminal investigation of the signature gathering efforts of several initiatives there. So many signatures proved to be invalid that several measures failed to qualify for the ballot. The Tribune story says that investigators are examining whether fraud was the reason for all the invalid signatures.

Watch Out, Arizona. Here Comes the Humane Society

Joe Mathews — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 14:38:00 -0400

The Humane Society doesn't just protect animals. They're the leading defender of the initiative process. And as the blog Animals & Politics, by Humane Society Legislative Fund president Michael Markarian (above) makes clear, Arizona is about to feel the full weight of the society. Specifically, the Humane Society is exercised about Prop 105, the newest in a series of super-majority requirement for ballot initiatives that is sweeping the nation. Florida implemented a requirement that 60 percent of voters approve a ballot initiative. And Utah, trying to fight off the Humane Society, implemented one that only covers measures on wildlife protection.

But the Arizona ballot initiative goes further, by requiring that a majority of ALL REGISTERED VOTERS approve an initiative before it takes effect. Just winning among people who show up would not be enough.

Connerly Throws In The Towel In Arizona

Joe Mathews — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 06:16:00 -0400

Backers of Ward Connerly's anti-affirmative action initiative on Friday abandoned their lawsuit to try to get the measure on the ballot. It had appeared to have enough to qualify, but was kicked off the ballot because of an unusually high rate of invalid signatures. The supporters of the measure were going back through signatures in Maricopa County, but ran out of time to go through all of them, in part because the county was providing them only two computers to do the work. They say they'll try again in 2010.

I'd be surprised if they can get the money. Connerly and his supporters have proven incapable of getting the basics of qualifying initiatives right. He had originally planned to have a similar initiative on the ballot in five states. But he has failed in three states, and his initiative in Colorado is in trouble. The only state he's made the ballot? Nebraska.

Arizona Mess Heads To Court

Joe Mathews — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 13:23:00 -0400

No fewer than six measures that may or may not be on Arizona's November ballot now face legal challenges. The Republic provides an overview.

Arizona Initiative to Prohibit Universal Coverage Is Back On Nov. Ballot, For Now

Joe Mathews — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 14:55:00 -0400

Arizona's direct democracy is a mess. Signature gathering firms there are struggling to get valid signatures on initiative petitions. Three measures were knocked off the ballot because of low validity rates.

Now one of those initiatives -- a measure that would preemptively bar legislation such as that passed in Massachusetts (and pursued in California) for expanded health care coverage -- has received new life. A superior court judge ruled that some signatures marked invalid were, in fact, valid. When the new tally from a random sample was calculated, the initiative, Prop 101, had enough signatures to make the ballot, the Arizona Daily Star reports. This may not be the last world. Opponents could appeal.

The Arizona Signature Gathering Fiasco

Joe Mathews — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 20:06:00 -0400

In blockbuster democracy, there are always invalid signatures. People don't sign their own names. Forgery by gatherers can be a problem. Sometimes, people's signatures change over time, and no longer match registration cards filed decades ago. Or people mistakenly leave out part of their address, or sign on a petition from the wrong county. Some problems are to be expected. When initiative petition signatures are checked, about 70 percent of signatures will prove to be valid -- if the signature gathering operation was well run.

But in Arizona, the signature gathering efforts for multiple measures appear to have failed to meet that standard. According to the Arizona Republic, three measures appear to be in trouble. Two of them, one involving real estate transfers and another involving conservation, appear to have fallen short. A third, a transportation initiative, had so few valid signatures that it has failed to make the ballot. In random sampling, an estimated 42 percent of the signatures were invalid, suggesting that the people handling the gathering failed to do their job. Arizona's Secretary of State said that this was "among the largest overall invalid rates that I can recall ever seeing from a citizens initiative drive.” The initiative won't be on the ballot.

One excuse offered by petition circulators there; the counties and state may be slow in processing new voter registrations. Here's the background: when signature gatherers approach somebody who is not registered to vote, they often have them register on the spot, then sign the initiative petitions. If the initiative petitions are processed before voters are registered there could be a problem. There may be such a problem, but it's hard to imagine that would account for such a low validity rate. Having that many bad signatures suggests a deeper problem -- a problem broad enough to warrant investigation by legal authorities.