Redistricting

Claussen on 1A Polling

Joe Mathews — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 18:16:00 -0400

UPDATED 9 p.m.: Rick Claussen, the veteran initiative consultant handling the sweeping campaign for all six California special election measures, is out with an interesting memo on the recent PPIC poll, which shows five of those six in trouble.

Claussen is self-interested obviously. But your blogger has found him to be very reliable in the past. (Most recently, your blogger said Prop 11, last November's redistricting initiative in California, had no chance of passing. Claussen told me I was wrong and then proved it, managing the campaign that got it passed).

In this new memo, dated Wednesday, Claussen writes that the PPIC poll effectively assumes a turnout of 50 percent. He says the campaign's own internals on Prop 1A show it with a lead of 50 to 37 percent. That would make the measure hardly a sure thing, but that's much better than the PPIC poll, which showed it trailing, with 46 percent No and 39 percent Yes:

From the memo:

"In an off-year special election to be held in May, we believe a 50% turnout model is very
high based on historical data. It is more likely that we will see turnout of 30% or lower.
In the heated 2005 special election (with $150 million spent), turnout was 50%.

"PPIC conducted 2,004 interviews in this survey and of those, 1,525 self-reported that they
were registered to vote and then self reported their past voting record, current interest and
voting intentions on May 19. This narrowed PPIC’s likely voter pool down to 978 likely
voters. This means they used a turnout model of over 50%. PPIC also uses a random
digit dial and then asks folks if they are registered and then attempts to build some sort of
“likely voter” crosstab.

"Internal polling conducted both by the Budget Reform Now committee and others
working to pass these measures was built on roughly a 30% turnout model using
registered voter lists supplemented by calls to cell phone numbers. The numbers in these
surveys tell a different story. For example, in our polling we asked nearly the exact same
question on Proposition 1A and found 50% support for the measure to 37% oppose.
PPIC, on the other hand, found 39% support for the measure to 46% oppose."

What does "nearly the exact same question" mean? According to the campaign, its internals did not include two small changes made to the ballot label by the judge. (Both polls read the ballot label).It is worth noting that the judge's changes, whille minor, removed two words that gave the label a more positive cast. The word "reforms" was struck from the phrase, "reforms the budget process."

I sent the memo to Mark Baldassare of PPIC, who replied in part:

"Thanks, our poll does not assume a specific turnout for the
election. In fact, we never make predictions about the size and
composition of the electorate before an election. We define likely
voters through answers to a series of questions about voter
registration, intentions to vote, past voting, interest in politics, and
attention to election news. Rather than focus on the size of our sample
as it relates to the percent of registered voters, let's consider the
partisan makeup among our likely voters -- Democrat 45%; Republicans
36%; dts/others=19%. Would a low turnout produce a more Republican or a
more Democratic electorate? This will be important, since Republicans
are opposed to 1A to 1E will Democrats favor each of them...."

On the Street: Washington State, Florida

Joe Mathews — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 17:10:00 -0500

There are plenty of initiatives in California cleared for circulation, but nothing on the street, as of my last check last weekend. The May 19 special election came too quickly for anyone to qualify an initiative, and the next scheduled statewide election isn't until June 2010. And many of state's signature gatherers have departed for Florida or Washington.

What are they working on there? In Florida, there are two redistricting initiatives on the ballot, paying 70 cents a piece. In Washington, a conservative, anti-property tax initiative is paying 75 cents. Both prices are low, but I'm told that circulators are showing a lot of interest in both petitions. Deflation and the bad economy have not spared direct democracy. (Hat tip: Public Petitioner).

Big Governor, Small Reform Agenda

Joe Mathews — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 19:09:00 -0500

The most striking thing about Gov. Schwarzenegger's political reform event Wednesday at a railroad museum in Sacramento was how little was said about the future. The event celebrated the narrow triumph of Prop 11, the measure to strip California legislators of the ability to draw their own districts. But there wasn't much specific about that. Schwarzenegger's office did issue a press release that listed legislation he's supported in the past, and argued that he will pursue more transparency, without giving details).

Prop 11 was a significant political triumph (similar measures had lost before), but its impact is likely to be small. The measure doesn't take effect for another two years. And given the political geography of California, it will be hard to draw single-member districts that don't strongly favor one party or the other. Californians tend to live near people who vote like they do.

The value of Prop 11 was to develop momentum for more profound reforms. But no reforms were discussed at the Wednesday event, according to a transcript. The only idea clearly on the table is having "open" or non-partisan primaries for statewide offices, instead of the current partisan primary. That would certainly have a greater impact than redistricting. And tamping down partisanship is necessary. But the measure doesn't take on the state's core and related problems: its dysfunctional budget system (which requires super-majorities to pass a budget or raise taxes) and its initiative-mad politics. The open primary's effects on these problems would be, at best, indirect.

It's time for reform groups to be more aggressive and try harder, more direct reforms. Passing any kind of political reform, including an open primary, will be so difficult anyway, that it makes better strategic sense to pursue big changes -- such as ending the two-thirds requirement, or increasing the size of the legislature and allowing voters to elect more than one representative per district.

What Do Redistricting Results Mean?

Joe Mathews — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 17:59:00 -0500

The results of Prop 11, the redistricting reform initiative in California, still remain too close for most media outlets to call. At Fox & Hounds Daily, I try to find a pattern in the scattershod map of the votes tallied so far.

Speaking Too Soon?

Joe Mathews — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 13:42:00 -0500

I'm back today to discover that Prop 11 isn't a done deal at all. Its backers have declared victory, but Prop 11 opponents refuse to concede. The redistricting reform initiative has a lead of nearly 100,000 votes with all precincts reporting, but there are still more than 1 million outstanding ballots -- absentees and provisionals -- to count.

Winners and Losers In Initiative Land

Joe Mathews — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 13:51:00 -0500

Winners:

Political reform. In California, the big longshot -- redistricting reform, which has a near perfect record of losing at the ballot -- came in. Prop 11, which strips the legislature of the right to draw state legislative districts (Congressional districts were exempted) -- passed. It's a stunning win (and one your blogger predicted would not happen). This redistricting measure is a modest reform, but the victory suggests that political reform on the ballot may be possible -- at least if there isn't much of a campaign against it. Look for future measures on open primary and perhaps other reforms. And in Colorado, Prop 54 -- which had little money and faced a huge, expensive, labor campaign againts it -- also appears to have scored a triumph. The measure is a tight ban on "pay to play." If a company or union has a contract with the government, it can't give money. Labor leaders here in Denver last night say they will challenge it in court.

The initiative process. Voters turned down the greatest in the country to the initiative process, Arizona's "majority rules" measure, which would have established a near impossible standard for passing an initiative: a majority of all the state's registered voters (not just the voters who show up on election day). Measure O, a legislative referendum to make it more difficult to qualify an initiative to change the state constitution, also went down.

Farm animals. On a crowded California ballot, Prop 2, an initiative to regulate how farm animals are treated, passed overwhelmingly. The initiative's sponsor, the Humane Society of the United States, is all but certain to qualify similar measures in other initiative states.

Losers:

Marriage equality. Bans on same-sex marriage passed in Arizona, Florida, and, most disappointingly in California. The bans likely will be challenged in court, and in California, there may be a chance of overturning it. A 4-3 majority of California Supreme Court said there was a constitutional right to such unions back in May. There needs to be some real soul-searching about how the No on 8 effort was conducted. The no effort appeared to be well ahead in the polls a few months out, but lost ground with a confusing campaign that also seemed to antagonize religious people.

The pro-life movement. Attempts to restrict abortion went down to defeat in California, Colorado and South Dakota.

Billionaires. Peter Sperling and T. Boone Pickens poured big money (well at least big money for the rest of us) into poipular sounding renewable energy initiatives in California: Props 7 and 10. But both went down to defeat, badly.

Affirmative action. A ban on affirmative action, one of two initiatives backed by Californian Ward Connerly to make a state ballot, won in Nebraska. A similar measure trailed narrowly in Colorado. The race is so close there could be a recount.

Last Field Poll: Chickens Have Big Lead, Redistricting Gaining, Gay Marriage Close

Joe Mathews — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 15:30:00 -0400

A new Field Poll out this morning in California has news on four ballot props.

-Prop 2, the initiative regulating farm animal confinement, appears headed to an easy win. This would be another big initiative victory for those champions of direct democracy, the Humane Society of the United States.

- Prop 8, the ban on same-sex marriage, is gaining. In the last Field Poll, it had 38 percent support versus 55 opposed. Now the numbers are 44 yes, 49 no. Too close to call.

-Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has a real chance, and that's news. Redistricting has a long record of failure at the ballot. It has support of 45 percent, opposition from 30 percent of voters. That's a huge undecided vote, reflecting broad confusion about what the measure does. The good news for advocates of redistricting reform is that some of their opposition has turned to undecided.

-Prop 7, an initiative to raise state standards for renewables, appears to be toast. It's lost massive support, from 63 percent in July to 39 percent in this poll.

The full poll is here.

Fire and Prop 11

Joe Mathews — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 00:38:00 -0400

This is the new ad in favor of Prop 11, the California initiative to strip state legislators of the power to draw their own disricts. A citizens' commission would do the job instead.

It stars a firefighter. This is typical--cops, firefighters and teachers have been staples of initiative ads in California. Firefighters are among the most popular public servants. Often, firefighters in ads are there on behalf of unions that have endorsed a measure. That's not the case here, however.

Prison Gerrymandering

Joe Mathews — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 17:07:00 -0400

This New York Times story spotlights the problem of "prison gerrymandering": prisoners can't vote, but they can count as residents of the legislative districts in which they are confined.

Redistricting Opponents Caught Red-Handed

Joe Mathews — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 01:07:00 -0400

Opponents of Prop 11, the California initiative to change how legislative districts are drawn, have been calling the initiative a Republican power grab. But now they've paid for space on a Republican mailer calling it a Democratic power grab. The Yes on 11 campaign quickly pointed this out today. More details via the Sacramento Bee.