Reapportionment

What Do Redistricting Results Mean?

Joe Mathews — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 17:59:00 -0500

The results of Prop 11, the redistricting reform initiative in California, still remain too close for most media outlets to call. At Fox & Hounds Daily, I try to find a pattern in the scattershod map of the votes tallied so far.

Speaking Too Soon?

Joe Mathews — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 13:42:00 -0500

I'm back today to discover that Prop 11 isn't a done deal at all. Its backers have declared victory, but Prop 11 opponents refuse to concede. The redistricting reform initiative has a lead of nearly 100,000 votes with all precincts reporting, but there are still more than 1 million outstanding ballots -- absentees and provisionals -- to count.

Last Field Poll: Chickens Have Big Lead, Redistricting Gaining, Gay Marriage Close

Joe Mathews — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 15:30:00 -0400

A new Field Poll out this morning in California has news on four ballot props.

-Prop 2, the initiative regulating farm animal confinement, appears headed to an easy win. This would be another big initiative victory for those champions of direct democracy, the Humane Society of the United States.

- Prop 8, the ban on same-sex marriage, is gaining. In the last Field Poll, it had 38 percent support versus 55 opposed. Now the numbers are 44 yes, 49 no. Too close to call.

-Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has a real chance, and that's news. Redistricting has a long record of failure at the ballot. It has support of 45 percent, opposition from 30 percent of voters. That's a huge undecided vote, reflecting broad confusion about what the measure does. The good news for advocates of redistricting reform is that some of their opposition has turned to undecided.

-Prop 7, an initiative to raise state standards for renewables, appears to be toast. It's lost massive support, from 63 percent in July to 39 percent in this poll.

The full poll is here.

Fire and Prop 11

Joe Mathews — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 00:38:00 -0400

This is the new ad in favor of Prop 11, the California initiative to strip state legislators of the power to draw their own disricts. A citizens' commission would do the job instead.

It stars a firefighter. This is typical--cops, firefighters and teachers have been staples of initiative ads in California. Firefighters are among the most popular public servants. Often, firefighters in ads are there on behalf of unions that have endorsed a measure. That's not the case here, however.

Prison Gerrymandering

Joe Mathews — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 17:07:00 -0400

This New York Times story spotlights the problem of "prison gerrymandering": prisoners can't vote, but they can count as residents of the legislative districts in which they are confined.

Redistricting Opponents Caught Red-Handed

Joe Mathews — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 01:07:00 -0400

Opponents of Prop 11, the California initiative to change how legislative districts are drawn, have been calling the initiative a Republican power grab. But now they've paid for space on a Republican mailer calling it a Democratic power grab. The Yes on 11 campaign quickly pointed this out today. More details via the Sacramento Bee.

The Strategic Mistakes Of the Prop 11 Campaign

Joe Mathews — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 17:14:00 -0400

Redistricting reform is always a tough sell--too complicated, and the partisan voters on both sides are too skeptical. But Prop 11, the California initiative to take the power to draft legislative districts away from the legislature, has the best chance of any such measure. As opposed to 2005, when a redistricting reform initiative failed badly under an onslaught from public employee unions, the opposition this time is relatively weak and poorly funded. But the initiative has far less than majority support in public polls. Why? The campaign messaging is a mess.

What's the problem? The campaign's ads are anti-politician blasts at the legislature for their many sins. Press conference seek to gin up populist anger. But this message doesn't match the reality of the measure and the folks leading the campaign. The most prominent backer is, of all things, an unpopular politician -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is today getting attention for fundraising he's doing in Florida for the measure. And the campaign is even boasting of the support of non-Californian politicians such as New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg. The billionaire mayor was accurately called a hypocrite in the New York press this week for coming to Los Angeles to campaign for Prop 11 (becaues of the importance of the will of the people) even as he seeks to avoid a popular referendum on a plan that would extend term limits and permit him to run for a third term as mayor.

Here's my question for the Prop 11 supporters: How can you run a campaign that's anti-politician while your campaign is depending on rich and famous politicians like Bloomberg and Schwarzenegger? It's no wonder that support is soft and voter confusion about the measure is high. On top of that, the campaign has made a series of over-the-top claims about redistricting reform that they can't prove. (That Prop 11 will make the legislature more responsive, that it will somehow fix the budget). Prop 11 has its virtues. It ends a conflict of interest in lawmakers choosing their own districts, but there's little evidence it will make a material change in the legislature.

Instead, Prop 11 supporters should be running a subdued campaign that emphasizes how modest the measure is. Radio and TV ads should talk only about the details of the measure--the conflict of interest we now have, and the way the citizens' commission proposed by the initiative might work. I'd suggest that the ads nod to the initiative's modest by calling it a "first step" in an effort to reform California politics. This sort of argument would have the advantage of being true. Prop 11's backers support other changes that would make a more profound difference in the state's political culture, like ending the super-majority requirement for budgets and establishing open, or non-partisan, primaries.

Immediately, the Prop 11 campaign should knock off the anti-politician rhetoric.. People know they hate politicians right now-- they're inundated with populist blasts at the political class, so inundated that I wonder how much value such criticism has. Voters want solutions, even modest ones. So talk about the details.. Since Prop 11has the bipartisan support of politicians, the campaign may mention a few of those politicians to show it's not threatening to partisans. But the campaign's leaders should think about asking Gov. Schwarzenegger not to campaign for the measure. Doesn't he have a budget and economic crisis to handle? I suspect that any dollars he's raising in Florida aren't worth the damage from news stories about his traveling there. Such fundraising does not match the message of a campaign that should be about political reform and clean government. And Schwarzenegger's popularity is such (approval rating at 40 percent or below--even lower than that in a private poll I saw this week in Sacramento) that Prop 11 is unlikely to benefit -- and could be hurt -- by his association with the redistricting reform cause.

Bottom line: Prop 11 requires a softer sell.

Redistricting Reform's Best, and Last, Chance

Joe Mathews — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 11:57:00 -0400

Back in the spring, I ran into a consultant working for redistricting reform, the California ballot initiative Prop 11, and he predicted that there might not be a funded campaign against the measure. I scoffed -- I think redistricting reform, while a fine cause, has been oversold and is politically a waste of time. But it looks more and more like he was onto something.

Redistricting measures have a long tradition of failing. But if there's ever going to be a year for such an initiative to pass, this may be it. The latest good news for Prop 11 is that the powerful California Teachers Assn., which has spent big to beat previous redistricting efforts, has decided to stay neutral. (CTA isn't happy with the legislature over the most recent budget, and this smells like payback to Democratic leaders who oppose redistricting). That leaves the no campaign without critical financial and organizational strength.

That said, it's still an uphill battle for redistricting, which has less than 40 percent support in polls. Few initiatives with such little support end up winning. But the ray of hope in those surveys is that the "no" vote is low, too, with a huge undecided. If redistricting supporters can somehow get out their message (a tough thing to do with attention on the worldwide economic crisis and the presidential campaign), they might have a chance at winning over undecided and earning a narrow victory.

CTA Endorsing Redistricting Reform?

Joe Mathews — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 20:28:00 -0400

The Capitol Weekly reports that the powerful California Teachers Association is holding an emergency meeting of its board today to discuss how to respond to the just-passed budget. CTA is unhappy about the budget -- who isn't? -- and is taking action as a result. On the table, according to the Weekly: 1. no spending on Democratic legislative campaigns this fall. 2. a ballot measure to reverse corporate tax cuts that are in the budget, and 3. endorsing Prop 11, the redistricting reform initiative on this November's ballot. If CTA were to back Prop 11 with its endorsement and money, it might give the cause of redistricting reform -- never a popular cause -- enough push to get it over the top.

In The Matter of PPIC vs. Dan Walters

Joe Mathews — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 01:16:00 -0400

More than a week ago, the Public Policy Institute of California put out a report looking at redistricting and legislative behavior. But it didn't get the attention it deserved. The recall attempt against Gov. Schwarzenegger, the calls for a constitutional convention, and -- most of all -- the end of the budget drama consumed air time and newspaper space. The report also was the subject of a dismissive column by Sacramento Bee columnist Dan Walters.

I've now read the PPIC report and the Walters column. Bottom line: Walters gets it wrong, and PPIC's report deserves more attention from the state's leaders and media. Walters, in the manner of sportswriters who ignore the importance of baseball stasticis and talk about unverifiable things like "clubhouse chemistry" and "clutch hitting," dismisses the report by saying that the legislature is more partisan now than it was in the '90s. How does Dan know this? He just does. He was there. The report, Walters wrote, "could not, for instance, quantify the influence that moderate Democrats in the Assembly, led by then-Speaker Robert Hertzberg and dubbed the 'mod squad,' wielded." The other problem with Walters' criticism is that it's not on point. The report's conclusion isn't really about partisanship in one decade versus another. PPIC hones in on legislative behavior, and the factors that change it.

Here, the report deserves a close reading, not only by voters considering Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, but also by the vast collection of good government groups that are talking about a constitutional convention and broader reforms. Here's the report's bottom line on redistricting: there's no evidence that the way districts are drawn affects how legislators behave and vote. This is real news, and should force California reformers to look away from redistricting as the focus of their efforts. What might work better? Open primaries might change the nature of candidates that are elected to office. Or perhaps changing the structure and size of the legislature would make a difference.

The PPIC report's author, Eric McGhee, at the California State Association of Counties conference center in Sacramento, 1020 11th Street. And for those interested in big ideas, keep a couple of events on your calendar. Leon Panetta is the keynote speaker in San Francisco on Oct., 14 at a dinner hosted by the Bay Area Council, the business-backed policy group that is pushing for a constitutional convention. And on Nov. 19 in Sacramento, the New America Foundation -- full disclosure: my employer -- is holding an event on regionalism in California that will address the struture of the legislature. More to come on that.