Ballot Initiatives

Could They All Go Down Together?

Joe Mathews — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 13:55:00 -0400

The Field Poll has recently conducted surveys on 5 of the 11 initiatives -- plus one bond measure -- scheduled to appear on California's November ballot. The numbers are all over the place, but there's reason to believe that all six measures polled could be headed to defeat in November.

How's that?

Well, the lack of initial support for a ballot initiative is almost always an indication that it won't pass. Such measures are hard to sell even when they, at first blush, have appeal. To start out with less than 50 percent support and win requires a Herculean effort (and usually, very weak or non-existent opposition). On that basis alone, we can count out Prop 11, the redistricting measure, which shows only 42 percent in the poll, and Prop 4, parental notification, which has 48 percent. The same is also probably true of Prop 8, the ban on same-sex marriage, which also has only 42 percent in a recent Field Poll. One caution: the politics of gay marriage, which are really the politics of marriage, are complicated and relatively new, and other polling has shown this to be a tighter race than that. This is likely to be a 51-49 kind of campaign. The question is who wins.

The rest of the measures have majority support in the Field Poll. But the numbers may not tell much because so few people are aware of the measures. In fact, no more than 23 percent of voters were aware of any measures--with the exceptional of parental notification, a Groundhog Day measure which the voters have confronted in the past two election cycles. Support is more likely to fall than rise as voters learn more.

Prop 1, the oft-delayed high speed rail bond, has a decent chance, showing 56 percent support and 30 percent in opposition in the Field Poll. But supporters should not be comfortable. While the idea of rail is attractive, voters may end up focusing on the billions of borrowing required. Taking on new debt in a cash-strapped state at a time of credit crisis does not sound wise. And if the legislature and governor add budget-related measures to the ballot as a result of a budget compromise this summer, there will be considerable public debate in California about debt. In such an environment, Prop 1 is in deep trouble.

Prop 7, the renewable energy measure, shows even stronger support, at 63 percent in the Field Poll. But the measure has big political problems. Both state parties oppose it, as do local governments and environmentalists. If the environmental community can communicate its displeasure, the measure surely can be defeated. The presence of Prop 10, Boone Pickens' $5 billion bond to help the natural gas business, also could drag down Prop 7 if the two measures become connected in people's minds. (Memo to consultants: this may not be the time for a California campaign fronted by an out-of-state oilman).

Finally, we come to Prop 2, the Humane Society's measure to give farm animals a little more freedom to move around. It has 63 percent support, but it also faces a well-funded and fierce no campaign from agricultural interests. No campaigns usually drag a measure down, but the Humane Society has one of the most sophisticated political operations of any interest group. And the society has the best record in the country of winning ballot measure campaigns -- they win 4 times out of every 5.

This race will get closer, but in the end, the chickens win.

Everybody else loses.

Two New Measures Make Oregon Ballot

Joe Mathews — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 02:19:00 -0400

The "top two" open primary and a measure dedicating 15 percent of lottery revenues to public safety. Details are here.

California Round Up, Now Free Of Trans Fats

Joe Mathews — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 17:22:00 -0400

THE GROWING BALLOT: Friend of the blog Robert Greene has this excellent update on the rapidly expanding California ballot. The voters have done their part through signature gathering; now the legislature adds its own measure to the ballot.

HIGH SPEED RAIL: The much delayed bond measure establishing a high-speed rail system in California will finally appear on this November's ballot. But the legislature can't reach a compromise on oversight for the funding.

INTERESTING LOGIC: Steve Maviglio, Democratic strategist and aide to Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, pens a column arguing that electing more moderates to the legislature would be bad for the budget process. His argument is that moderates would feel so much political heat that they'd be unlikely to compromise. Hmmm. Perhaps Steve would be right. But we do know for a fact that partisans of the left and the right, protected by a gerrymander, have little interest in compromise. (That's how the current legislature works -- or, more accurately, doesn't). I am skeptical about the depth of redistricting reform's iimpact, and share Steve's view that the 2/3 super-majority for tax increases and budgets is a much bigger part of the state's problem. But it's hard to see how moderate legislators would be less likely to compromise than our current hyper-partisans. Looking at the sad state of our current budget talks, one could argue that it might be worth trying something different.

Jersey City, A Model of Public Ethics?

Joe Mathews — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 15:29:00 -0400

Possibly yes. A Jersey City councilman and potential mayoral candidate has submitted signatures on a pair of local ballot measures that would give Jersey City some of the strict ethical standards in the Garden State, Politicker reports. One initiative would ban city council members from accepting more than one public salary or pension. The other would ban no-bid contracts to campaign donors.

Great American Turn-In, Part 3

Joe Mathews — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 23:38:00 -0400

While you were at the beach or barbecuing hot dogs, petition circulators were practicing democracy. The final sigs are pouring in. Four measures were filed at the last minute in Oregon: a measure to devote a percentage of lottery proceeds to crime fighting, a cap on attorney's fees, a measure to reduce the number of lawsuits, and the open primary "top two" measure.

In Arizona and Nebraska, Ward Connerly's local supporters have filed the signatures on their anti-affirmative action initiatives. The Nebraska initiative is the only measure that appears to have the signatures in that state. (Hat tip, Ballotpedia).

Nevada Signature Crisis

Joe Mathews — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 13:27:00 -0400

This is a big black eye for the signature gathering business. A Nevada district judge, James Todd Russell, has disqualified three well-funded ballot initiatives because of problems with the affidavits signed by petition circulators. These were arguably the three biggest initiatives in the state. One initiative would divert casino taxes to education and other state issues. Another was the son of Prop 13 measure that would have required a two-thirds vote in the legislature to raise taxes. Backers included a former state treasurer and former controller.

What happened? In July 2007, the state legislature adopted new requirements for the affidavits that signature gatherers sign to verify that signatures are real. These new requirements, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, included a statement that the gatherer personally circulated the document, that the number of signatures were counted, and that each signer had an opportunity to read the text of the initiative.

However, Nevada Secretary of State Ross MIller never updated his web site, which lists the rules for such affidavits, to reflect these changes. It appears that signature gatherers relied on the web site and thus did not comply with the new law.

Here's what the judge had to say: "It is unfortunate here that someone didn't do there homework prior to the circulation of these initiatives, although I think the secretary of state could probably have done a better job in this particular case."

This won't be the end of the litigation, I suspect. There could be an appeal of this decision. If the backers of these initiatives lose, they could seek to get their money back, perhaps in the courts. Another question: do signature gatherers have to return any money they made in Nevada on these initiatives?

The Great American Turn-In

Joe Mathews — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 12:53:00 -0400

This week, petition circulators all over the country are working around the clock to collect signatures to meet turn-in deadlines. Six states require that signatures be handed in between July 3 and July 7: Arkansas, Arizona, Michigan, Nebraska, Oregon and Washington. Many of these professional gatherers are Californians who move to one of these states for the signature season. Hurry home, guys!

Already turned in this week: an initiative barring unmarried couples from adopting or serving as foster parents in Arkansas; an initiative that would reduce some of Arizona's harsher penalties for businesses that hire unauthorized immigrants; and an anti-traffic initiative in Washington state; (Hat tip, ballotpedia).

Is Connecticut the Next Blockbuster Democracy Frontier?

Joe Mathews — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 02:11:00 -0400

Conservatives there, many of them active in fighting same sex marriage, are calling for a constitutional convention that would permit full direct democracy in the Nutmeg State, including ballot initiatives.

Labor is organizing to oppose the effort. The last state to adopt the initiative process was Mississippi more than a decade ago. In most states, political leaders are going the other direction, attempting to reduce the ability of voters to legislate all by themselves. If Connecticut adopts the initiative, it would be the 25th state to do so, and the 28th to adopt direcdt democracy in some form.

Huff Post, BISC on the 2008 Ballot Initiatives

Joe Mathews — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 21:11:00 -0400

Naturally, the progressive view is that the initiatives won't affect the presidential election except that they might hurt Republicans. And here's the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center's look at the fall ballot measures.

Billionaire Initiative Funder Pleads Not Guilty

Joe Mathews — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 17:28:00 -0400

Henry Nicholas, the billionaire Broadcom founder and funder of "tough on crime" ballot initiatives in California, has pleaded not guilty to securities and drug charges. For those interested in the case, you might check out the excellent work that Orange County Register reporter John Gittelsohn (a former competitor and friend of your blogger) has done on this subject.