China

ASP In the News | May 12-14

Ian McAllister — Wed, 14 May 2008 16:33:00 -0400

The Associated Press (05/ 13) quotes Daniel Levy on the state of the Middle East peace process.
Foreign Policy in Focus (05/12) cites William Hartung on lessons learned in the Iraq War.
The New York Observer (05/12) mentions Parag Khanna in a discussion of the state of US hegemony.
World Politics Review (05/12) cites Flynt Leverett on China-US tensions.
US News (05/09) quotes Steve Clemons on Hillary Clinton's fading political future.

China's Earthquake: Tragedy, Test

Patrick Doherty — Mon, 12 May 2008 18:48:00 -0400

Today's news that Sichuan Province suffered an earthquake measuring 7.9 is not welcome news. Any region of the world would suffer significant loss of life after a tremblor of that degree and I fear the early numbers of casualties will only increase. Our sympathies go out to the Chinese victims and their families.

The strategic question is, what impact will the quake have on China going forward? Politically, the Chinese Government is under pressure to show they learned the lesson of this year's winter snowstorms that paralyzed the nation and demonstrated organizational weakness. If they don't demonstrate improved preparedness and effective rescue operations, the central government in Beijing will be weakened as the provincial governments adapt to deal with the anxiety of a massive population moving inexorably into closer, more interdependent quarters. New America Foundation out-going chairman, James Fallows, writing from Beijing, begins to examine the PR response of Beijing. I've attached it below.

If the loss of life is grave, however, the pressure to reform will extend beyond preparedness to prevention. This is what happened as far back as the great fire of London in 1666 and as recently as the Kobe earthquake a decade ago. The McKinsey Global Institute's recent report on China talks about China's cities holding 1 billion people by 2030. Prevention will mean the adoption of stricter building code standards and increased code enforcement, slowing down the engine of Chinese growth--which has so far had a decidedly dubious record in terms of public and environmental safety.

Hopefully, the numbers of people hurt by this tragedy will be few. But developing countries, even ones as big and sophisticated as China, generally trade off consumer and public safety for speed and profit.

***Update--5/13***

It looks like my fears have been born out. This morning's reports say at least 12,000 are feared dead and 18,000 more unaccounted for in the city of Mianzhu. This is the worst natural disaster in China for three decades. This is definitely a test for Beijing, much bigger than the winter snows. Let us hope it does not come near the 1976 earthquake when at least 240,000 people perished when the city of Tangshan collapsed in an earthquake of similar magnitude, which had its own grave political aftershocks.

Will the Hu/Wen government use the crisis to call for a new era of urban planning as McKinsey recommends? The Bush administration was unable to muster the will to use the devastation of Hurricane Katrina to deal with our own urban vulnerabilities. Hopefully the Chinese will see the opportunity to not only prevent future loss of life, but also to give the Bush administration a lesson in long-term disaster mitigation.

Earthquake coverage on Chinese TV

12 May 2008 11:20 am

Most of the channels on the (state controlled) CCTV are running the normal game shows, Olympic warmups (especially torch-relay updates), teen music shows, etc. But the CCTV-1 news channel is having all-out coverage of the earthquake in Sichuan province. Brief cultural notes:

- The coverage included a long segment of premier Wen Jiabao reading a speech about his deep concern for the people of Sichuan, from aboard an airplane en route to the disaster scene. Background: after the country was paralyzed by unexpected snow storms in February, the leadership was criticized for a Katrina-like slowness in dealing with the problem. Prominent coverage now of the main officials responding immediately to this disaster.

- News channels from Taiwan, which we are watching in alternation with the mainland coverage on CCTV, have extensive video footage from Chengdu, estimates of casualties, etc. So far no on-scene video footage that I've seen on CCTV-1, and no casualty figures. (The state news agency, Xinhua, is saying that 7600 people, or more, may have died.) Channel-surfing, we see that the German, Japanese, and Korean networks are also running Chengdu footage. It could have been on CCTV when I wasn't watching, but it's certainly not featured. CCTV is mainly running telephone interviews with correspondents in Sichuan and talking-head analyses in the studio. Possible background: controlling coverage within China until being sure exactly how the story should be presented. (Update: just saw a 20-second video clip from Chengdu on CCTV.)

- To help place this disaster: it is in almost exactly the same area I described in this article about the Wolong Panda Reserve, northwest of Chengdu, and this slide show about the reserve. A long, twisty road from Chengdu to Wolong, which had been undergoing years of reconstruction, passes right through the earthquake area. I assume it could be a long time before it is restored to even its perilous previous condition.

Good luck to all in Sichuan, including Dr. Tang Chunxiang and his colleagues in Wolong.

ASP In the News | May 08-12

Faith Smith — Mon, 12 May 2008 16:20:00 -0400

World Politics Review (5/12) cites Flynt Leverett on China's rising influence in the Middle East.
Toronto Star (5/11) discusses Steve Coll's book and the West's obsession with Osama Bin Laden.
Democracy Arsenal (5/9) quotes Ghaith al-Omari on U.S. and Israeli options for engaging Hamas.
TPM Cafe (5/7) Daniel Levy writes about Israel's stubborn commitment to roadblocks and checkpoints.

ASP in the News | May 5-7

Ian McAllister — Wed, 07 May 2008 15:28:00 -0400

Pacific Daily News (05/07) analyzes Parag Khanna's hypothesis of the decline of U.S. hegemony.
US News (05/06) quotes Sherle Schwenninger on the cost of doing business in the U.S.
AFP (05/06) cites Steve Clemons discussing the negative impact of Clinton's comments on Iran.
Hard News (05/06) discusses Peter Bergen's research on the link between education and terrorist recruitment.
The People's Daily (04/25) quotes Steve Clemons arguing against a boycott of the Beijing Games.

Chinese Currency Catch 22

Sam Sherraden — Wed, 07 May 2008 15:23:00 -0400

For the first part of 2008, the Chinese have increased the pace of yuan revaluation, but in doing so they may have augmented inflation, the very problem they are trying to prevent. Speculators poured funds into China (some believe as much as $200bn) during the first quarter of 2008 on the assumption that the undervalued yuan will appreciate further. The increased pace of appreciation during the first quarter only gave speculators more incentive to sneak cash in China's back door. The resulting growth in the monetary base has contributed to Chinese inflation. As a policy response some have argued China should do a one-off revaluation of the currency anywhere from fifteen to forty percent. Unsurprisingly, the Chinese authorities have not taken this risk.

Snapshot asks, what will be the pace of future yuan revaluation and will it stoke or reduce inflationary pressure?

Morgan Stanley - Dollar Smirks in Asia
AllianceBernstein - Asian Economic Perspectives
Michael Pettis - Have we begun the countdown to the maxi-revaluation?
Peterson Institute - Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Renminbi

ASP in the News | April 30 - May 2

Ian McAllister — Fri, 02 May 2008 15:52:00 -0400

The American Prospect (05/01) features Parag Khanna discussing the "second world's" growing influence.
The Project on Middle East Democracy (05/01) quotes Steve Clemons' critique of U.S. foreign policy.

ASP in the News | April 28-30

Ian McAllister — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 19:01:00 -0400

Wired Magazine (04/28) cites Jeffrey Lewis' research on the Syrian Nuclear Program
The Week Daily (04/25) quotes Steve Clemons on the implications of Syria's Nuclear Program
The New Republic (04/25) responds to Steve Clemons' debate against a Beijing Boycott

American Strategy in the News | April 18 - 21

Faith Smith — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 17:59:00 -0400

Book TV (4/21) interviews Steve Coll about his new book, The Bin Ladens.
The Washington Post (4/20) asks Flynt Leverett's opinion of UN Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad.
The Moderate Voice (4/19) quotes Daniel Levy on Israeli roadblocks as an obstacle to peace.
The Telegraph (4/19) reviews Parag Khanna's new book, The Second World.
The New Republic (4/18) follows Stephen Clemmons debate on the US response to the Beijing Olympics.
The Daily Yomiuri (04/17) features Steve Clemons analyzing Hillary’s Beijing boycott call.
PBS (4/17) speaks with Afshin Molavi about Iran's contemporary politics and culture.

Beijing 08: A Lonely Opening Ceremony?

Ian McAllister — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 21:36:00 -0400

On April 9^th, Senator Barack Obama joined a growing chorus of public figures demanding that President Bush boycott the Beijing Olympics opening ceremony. In a debate in The New Republic, American Strategy Director Steve Clemons and The New Republic Deputy Editor Richard Just debate the best action for the United States government to take vis-à-vis China's record of human rights violations. Clemons cites a potential nationalist backlash and the greater importance of geostrategic concerns. Just cites China's steadily worsening human rights abuses and the success of previous shaming attempts.

China May Export Inflation

Ian McAllister — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 20:02:00 -0400

Economists concerned anout rising oil and food prices can add another item to their list of fears, Chinese wage growth. In 2007, unit labor costs increased for the sixth consecutive year while the price of Chinese imports to the U.S. surged by 4%. With a global economy that has become reliant upon inexpensive Chinese manufactures, the question of whether Chinese wage inflation is transitory or part of a long term structural change is of great importance.

Snapshot asks, will wage growth add to China's inflationary threat?

Bureau of Labor Statistics - U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes
New York Times - Asian Inflation Begins to Sting
China Daily - China's 'Demographic Dividend' to End in 2010
Goldman Sachs - Globalization and Disinflation: Can Anyone Else ' Do a China'?
Business Week - How Rising Wages are Changing the Game in China