Prop 7

Last Field Poll: Chickens Have Big Lead, Redistricting Gaining, Gay Marriage Close

Joe Mathews — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 15:30:00 -0400

A new Field Poll out this morning in California has news on four ballot props.

-Prop 2, the initiative regulating farm animal confinement, appears headed to an easy win. This would be another big initiative victory for those champions of direct democracy, the Humane Society of the United States.

- Prop 8, the ban on same-sex marriage, is gaining. In the last Field Poll, it had 38 percent support versus 55 opposed. Now the numbers are 44 yes, 49 no. Too close to call.

-Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has a real chance, and that's news. Redistricting has a long record of failure at the ballot. It has support of 45 percent, opposition from 30 percent of voters. That's a huge undecided vote, reflecting broad confusion about what the measure does. The good news for advocates of redistricting reform is that some of their opposition has turned to undecided.

-Prop 7, an initiative to raise state standards for renewables, appears to be toast. It's lost massive support, from 63 percent in July to 39 percent in this poll.

The full poll is here.

Department of Self Promotion

Joe Mathews — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 19:32:00 -0400

Here's my piece, just now posted on the Scientific American web site, that looks at the poltical prospects of Propositions 7 and 10, two initiatives on the November ballot in California.

Utility Mandate For Alternative Fuels Is Restored To Missouri Ballot

Joe Mathews — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 03:03:00 -0400

An alternative fuels measure -- similar to California's Prop 7 -- did not appear to have enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot in Missouri. But a judge has reversed that decision, the Columbia Missourian reports. The issue was not the total number of signatures but the initiative's requirement with Missouri's distribution requirement. In Missouri, initiative sponsors must collect a minimum amount of signatures in six of the state's nine Congressional districts.

The initiative in question would require require utilities to use renewable fuels for at least two percent of the electricity they sell in the state by 2011, and for 15 percent of electricity by 2021.

Billionaires and Ballot Initiatives

Joe Mathews — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 19:30:00 -0400

Fundraising for ballot initiatives is a rich man's game. In 2006 in California, some two-thirds of all donations to ballot measures came in the amount of $1 million or more, according to a recent report from the Center for Governmental Studies. Yes, two-thirds of all donations.

So the latest big cash dumps in California are business as usual. Peter Sperling just gave $2.5 million to Prop 7, an alternative fuels measure. And George Soros found some spare change with the lint in his pants -- about $400,000 -- and threw it to Prop 5, which would expand drug rehabilitation and loosen some penalties for drug offenders. Soros' total donations to the measure? $1.4 million. So far. The Sacramento Bee has details.

The Robo-Calls Begin

Joe Mathews — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 12:56:00 -0400

UPDATED: 3 PM. Or maybe not. A consultant for No on 7 says they don't have robo-calls and this wasn't one. The call I received -- on my cell phone, at 9:46 p.m. -- doesn't match the script for the Yes on 7 robo-call. So this must have been -- something else....

ORIGINAL MSG: Just received one opposing Prop 7, which would require utilities to produce half their power from renewables by 2025. The measure is opposed by utilities, but the recorded voice claims that the measure is cooked up by the same people who gave us the electricity crisis in California six years ago. As I recall, the utilities supported the legislation that gave us that crisis.

California, Here Comes the Cash: Utilities Drop $22.5 Million Against Prop 7

Joe Mathews — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:29:00 -0400

California utilities have recently given more than $22 million to stop Prop 7, Peter Sperling's measure on renewable fuels, according to the Sacramento Bee. Proponents of Prop 7 are highlighting the utility money, in part to make the fight appear to be between advocates of alternative fuels and the utilities. But despite strong early polling, the measure has united people -- in opposition, including both political parties, labor and business, and environmentalists (who like the goal but think the initiative is poorly drafted).

With this amount of money coming into the race early, and deep pockets on both sides, this could easily be a $50 million campaign. And with the oilman Boone Pickens launching Prop 10 to subsidize his own investments in natural gas, California could easily see $100 million spent for and against the two energy measures. With big money campaigns expected around Prop 2 (the animal confinement measure), Prop 8 (ban on gay marriage), and perhaps redistricting (Prop 11), this year could see spending of more than $200 million on initiatives alone.

Could They All Go Down Together?

Joe Mathews — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 13:55:00 -0400

Also posted at Fox and Hounds Daily.

The Field Poll has recently conducted surveys on 5 of the 11 initiatives -- plus one bond measure -- scheduled to appear on California's November ballot. The numbers are all over the place, but there's reason to believe that all six measures polled could be headed to defeat in November.

How's that?

Well, the lack of initial support for a ballot initiative is almost always an indication that it won't pass. Such measures are hard to sell even when they, at first blush, have appeal. To start out with less than 50 percent support and win requires a Herculean effort (and usually, very weak or non-existent opposition). On that basis alone, we can count out Prop 11, the redistricting measure, which shows only 42 percent in the poll, and Prop 4, parental notification, which has 48 percent. The same is also probably true of Prop 8, the ban on same-sex marriage, which also has only 42 percent in a recent Field Poll. One caution: the politics of gay marriage, which are really the politics of marriage, are complicated and relatively new, and other polling has shown this to be a tighter race than that. This is likely to be a 51-49 kind of campaign. The question is who wins.

The rest of the measures have majority support in the Field Poll. But the numbers may not tell much because so few people are aware of the measures. In fact, no more than 23 percent of voters were aware of any measures--with the exceptional of parental notification, a Groundhog Day measure which the voters have confronted in the past two election cycles. Support is more likely to fall than rise as voters learn more.

Prop 1, the oft-delayed high speed rail bond, has a decent chance, showing 56 percent support and 30 percent in opposition in the Field Poll. But supporters should not be comfortable. While the idea of rail is attractive, voters may end up focusing on the billions of borrowing required. Taking on new debt in a cash-strapped state at a time of credit crisis does not sound wise. And if the legislature and governor add budget-related measures to the ballot as a result of a budget compromise this summer, there will be considerable public debate in California about debt. In such an environment, Prop 1 is in deep trouble.

Prop 7, the renewable energy measure, shows even stronger support, at 63 percent in the Field Poll. But the measure has big political problems. Both state parties oppose it, as do local governments and environmentalists. If the environmental community can communicate its displeasure, the measure surely can be defeated. The presence of Prop 10, Boone Pickens' $5 billion bond to help the natural gas business, also could drag down Prop 7 if the two measures become connected in people's minds. (Memo to consultants: this may not be the time for a California campaign fronted by an out-of-state oilman).

Finally, we come to Prop 2, the Humane Society's measure to give farm animals a little more freedom to move around. It has 63 percent support, but it also faces a well-funded and fierce no campaign from agricultural interests. No campaigns usually drag a measure down, but the Humane Society has one of the most sophisticated political operations of any interest group. And the society has the best record in the country of winning ballot measure campaigns -- they win 4 times out of every 5.

This race will get closer, but in the end, the chickens win.

Everybody else loses.