Prop 11

Claussen on 1A Polling

Joe Mathews — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 18:16:00 -0400

UPDATED 9 p.m.: Rick Claussen, the veteran initiative consultant handling the sweeping campaign for all six California special election measures, is out with an interesting memo on the recent PPIC poll, which shows five of those six in trouble.

Claussen is self-interested obviously. But your blogger has found him to be very reliable in the past. (Most recently, your blogger said Prop 11, last November's redistricting initiative in California, had no chance of passing. Claussen told me I was wrong and then proved it, managing the campaign that got it passed).

In this new memo, dated Wednesday, Claussen writes that the PPIC poll effectively assumes a turnout of 50 percent. He says the campaign's own internals on Prop 1A show it with a lead of 50 to 37 percent. That would make the measure hardly a sure thing, but that's much better than the PPIC poll, which showed it trailing, with 46 percent No and 39 percent Yes:

From the memo:

"In an off-year special election to be held in May, we believe a 50% turnout model is very
high based on historical data. It is more likely that we will see turnout of 30% or lower.
In the heated 2005 special election (with $150 million spent), turnout was 50%.

"PPIC conducted 2,004 interviews in this survey and of those, 1,525 self-reported that they
were registered to vote and then self reported their past voting record, current interest and
voting intentions on May 19. This narrowed PPIC’s likely voter pool down to 978 likely
voters. This means they used a turnout model of over 50%. PPIC also uses a random
digit dial and then asks folks if they are registered and then attempts to build some sort of
“likely voter” crosstab.

"Internal polling conducted both by the Budget Reform Now committee and others
working to pass these measures was built on roughly a 30% turnout model using
registered voter lists supplemented by calls to cell phone numbers. The numbers in these
surveys tell a different story. For example, in our polling we asked nearly the exact same
question on Proposition 1A and found 50% support for the measure to 37% oppose.
PPIC, on the other hand, found 39% support for the measure to 46% oppose."

What does "nearly the exact same question" mean? According to the campaign, its internals did not include two small changes made to the ballot label by the judge. (Both polls read the ballot label).It is worth noting that the judge's changes, whille minor, removed two words that gave the label a more positive cast. The word "reforms" was struck from the phrase, "reforms the budget process."

I sent the memo to Mark Baldassare of PPIC, who replied in part:

"Thanks, our poll does not assume a specific turnout for the
election. In fact, we never make predictions about the size and
composition of the electorate before an election. We define likely
voters through answers to a series of questions about voter
registration, intentions to vote, past voting, interest in politics, and
attention to election news. Rather than focus on the size of our sample
as it relates to the percent of registered voters, let's consider the
partisan makeup among our likely voters -- Democrat 45%; Republicans
36%; dts/others=19%. Would a low turnout produce a more Republican or a
more Democratic electorate? This will be important, since Republicans
are opposed to 1A to 1E will Democrats favor each of them...."

Big Governor, Small Reform Agenda

Joe Mathews — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 19:09:00 -0500

The most striking thing about Gov. Schwarzenegger's political reform event Wednesday at a railroad museum in Sacramento was how little was said about the future. The event celebrated the narrow triumph of Prop 11, the measure to strip California legislators of the ability to draw their own districts. But there wasn't much specific about that. Schwarzenegger's office did issue a press release that listed legislation he's supported in the past, and argued that he will pursue more transparency, without giving details).

Prop 11 was a significant political triumph (similar measures had lost before), but its impact is likely to be small. The measure doesn't take effect for another two years. And given the political geography of California, it will be hard to draw single-member districts that don't strongly favor one party or the other. Californians tend to live near people who vote like they do.

The value of Prop 11 was to develop momentum for more profound reforms. But no reforms were discussed at the Wednesday event, according to a transcript. The only idea clearly on the table is having "open" or non-partisan primaries for statewide offices, instead of the current partisan primary. That would certainly have a greater impact than redistricting. And tamping down partisanship is necessary. But the measure doesn't take on the state's core and related problems: its dysfunctional budget system (which requires super-majorities to pass a budget or raise taxes) and its initiative-mad politics. The open primary's effects on these problems would be, at best, indirect.

It's time for reform groups to be more aggressive and try harder, more direct reforms. Passing any kind of political reform, including an open primary, will be so difficult anyway, that it makes better strategic sense to pursue big changes -- such as ending the two-thirds requirement, or increasing the size of the legislature and allowing voters to elect more than one representative per district.

What Do Redistricting Results Mean?

Joe Mathews — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 17:59:00 -0500

The results of Prop 11, the redistricting reform initiative in California, still remain too close for most media outlets to call. At Fox & Hounds Daily, I try to find a pattern in the scattershod map of the votes tallied so far.

Speaking Too Soon?

Joe Mathews — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 13:42:00 -0500

I'm back today to discover that Prop 11 isn't a done deal at all. Its backers have declared victory, but Prop 11 opponents refuse to concede. The redistricting reform initiative has a lead of nearly 100,000 votes with all precincts reporting, but there are still more than 1 million outstanding ballots -- absentees and provisionals -- to count.

Last Field Poll: Chickens Have Big Lead, Redistricting Gaining, Gay Marriage Close

Joe Mathews — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 15:30:00 -0400

A new Field Poll out this morning in California has news on four ballot props.

-Prop 2, the initiative regulating farm animal confinement, appears headed to an easy win. This would be another big initiative victory for those champions of direct democracy, the Humane Society of the United States.

- Prop 8, the ban on same-sex marriage, is gaining. In the last Field Poll, it had 38 percent support versus 55 opposed. Now the numbers are 44 yes, 49 no. Too close to call.

-Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has a real chance, and that's news. Redistricting has a long record of failure at the ballot. It has support of 45 percent, opposition from 30 percent of voters. That's a huge undecided vote, reflecting broad confusion about what the measure does. The good news for advocates of redistricting reform is that some of their opposition has turned to undecided.

-Prop 7, an initiative to raise state standards for renewables, appears to be toast. It's lost massive support, from 63 percent in July to 39 percent in this poll.

The full poll is here.

Fire and Prop 11

Joe Mathews — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 00:38:00 -0400

This is the new ad in favor of Prop 11, the California initiative to strip state legislators of the power to draw their own disricts. A citizens' commission would do the job instead.

It stars a firefighter. This is typical--cops, firefighters and teachers have been staples of initiative ads in California. Firefighters are among the most popular public servants. Often, firefighters in ads are there on behalf of unions that have endorsed a measure. That's not the case here, however.

Redistricting Opponents Caught Red-Handed

Joe Mathews — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 01:07:00 -0400

Opponents of Prop 11, the California initiative to change how legislative districts are drawn, have been calling the initiative a Republican power grab. But now they've paid for space on a Republican mailer calling it a Democratic power grab. The Yes on 11 campaign quickly pointed this out today. More details via the Sacramento Bee.

The Strategic Mistakes Of the Prop 11 Campaign

Joe Mathews — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 17:14:00 -0400

Redistricting reform is always a tough sell--too complicated, and the partisan voters on both sides are too skeptical. But Prop 11, the California initiative to take the power to draft legislative districts away from the legislature, has the best chance of any such measure. As opposed to 2005, when a redistricting reform initiative failed badly under an onslaught from public employee unions, the opposition this time is relatively weak and poorly funded. But the initiative has far less than majority support in public polls. Why? The campaign messaging is a mess.

What's the problem? The campaign's ads are anti-politician blasts at the legislature for their many sins. Press conference seek to gin up populist anger. But this message doesn't match the reality of the measure and the folks leading the campaign. The most prominent backer is, of all things, an unpopular politician -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is today getting attention for fundraising he's doing in Florida for the measure. And the campaign is even boasting of the support of non-Californian politicians such as New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg. The billionaire mayor was accurately called a hypocrite in the New York press this week for coming to Los Angeles to campaign for Prop 11 (becaues of the importance of the will of the people) even as he seeks to avoid a popular referendum on a plan that would extend term limits and permit him to run for a third term as mayor.

Here's my question for the Prop 11 supporters: How can you run a campaign that's anti-politician while your campaign is depending on rich and famous politicians like Bloomberg and Schwarzenegger? It's no wonder that support is soft and voter confusion about the measure is high. On top of that, the campaign has made a series of over-the-top claims about redistricting reform that they can't prove. (That Prop 11 will make the legislature more responsive, that it will somehow fix the budget). Prop 11 has its virtues. It ends a conflict of interest in lawmakers choosing their own districts, but there's little evidence it will make a material change in the legislature.

Instead, Prop 11 supporters should be running a subdued campaign that emphasizes how modest the measure is. Radio and TV ads should talk only about the details of the measure--the conflict of interest we now have, and the way the citizens' commission proposed by the initiative might work. I'd suggest that the ads nod to the initiative's modest by calling it a "first step" in an effort to reform California politics. This sort of argument would have the advantage of being true. Prop 11's backers support other changes that would make a more profound difference in the state's political culture, like ending the super-majority requirement for budgets and establishing open, or non-partisan, primaries.

Immediately, the Prop 11 campaign should knock off the anti-politician rhetoric.. People know they hate politicians right now-- they're inundated with populist blasts at the political class, so inundated that I wonder how much value such criticism has. Voters want solutions, even modest ones. So talk about the details.. Since Prop 11has the bipartisan support of politicians, the campaign may mention a few of those politicians to show it's not threatening to partisans. But the campaign's leaders should think about asking Gov. Schwarzenegger not to campaign for the measure. Doesn't he have a budget and economic crisis to handle? I suspect that any dollars he's raising in Florida aren't worth the damage from news stories about his traveling there. Such fundraising does not match the message of a campaign that should be about political reform and clean government. And Schwarzenegger's popularity is such (approval rating at 40 percent or below--even lower than that in a private poll I saw this week in Sacramento) that Prop 11 is unlikely to benefit -- and could be hurt -- by his association with the redistricting reform cause.

Bottom line: Prop 11 requires a softer sell.

Redistricting Reform's Best, and Last, Chance

Joe Mathews — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 11:57:00 -0400

Back in the spring, I ran into a consultant working for redistricting reform, the California ballot initiative Prop 11, and he predicted that there might not be a funded campaign against the measure. I scoffed -- I think redistricting reform, while a fine cause, has been oversold and is politically a waste of time. But it looks more and more like he was onto something.

Redistricting measures have a long tradition of failing. But if there's ever going to be a year for such an initiative to pass, this may be it. The latest good news for Prop 11 is that the powerful California Teachers Assn., which has spent big to beat previous redistricting efforts, has decided to stay neutral. (CTA isn't happy with the legislature over the most recent budget, and this smells like payback to Democratic leaders who oppose redistricting). That leaves the no campaign without critical financial and organizational strength.

That said, it's still an uphill battle for redistricting, which has less than 40 percent support in polls. Few initiatives with such little support end up winning. But the ray of hope in those surveys is that the "no" vote is low, too, with a huge undecided. If redistricting supporters can somehow get out their message (a tough thing to do with attention on the worldwide economic crisis and the presidential campaign), they might have a chance at winning over undecided and earning a narrow victory.

Three Props In Trouble

Joe Mathews — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:54:00 -0400

A new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California shows three November ballot initiatives -- Prop 4 (parental notification before a minor has an abortion), Prop 8 (ban on same-sex marriage) and Prop 11 (redistricting reform) -- with less than majority support. Prop 11's supporters issued a statement last night saying the poll was good news, as it showed the measure leading 38 percent to 33 percent. I suppose that depends on one's definition of good news. Few measures with less than majoriting support at this point pass. And while the state's dysfunction may give redistricting reform an opportunity, it's bad news that the measure doesn't have more support -- even after a blow-up of the budget process. And with Californians sour on their state, it's not clear that any political figure or interest group has the credibility to convince undecided voters to support the measure in the numbers needed for it to pass.

The poll suggests that voters may have more interest in broader reforms, including eliminating the requirement of a two-thirds vote in the legislature to pass a budget. California is one of only three states with such a super-majority rule.