Israel

Jehan Sadat on Middle East Peace

Patrick Doherty — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 15:47:00 -0400

Today the New America Foundation is honored to be hosting former Egyptian First Lady, Jehan Sadat. Dr. Sadat, who spends half her year as a scholar in residence at the University of Maryland, will be discussing the ideas she outlines in her latest book, My Hope for Peace.

ASP In the News | August 11-13

Ian McAllister — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 22:08:00 -0400

Chicago Tribune (08/13) quotes Steve Clemons on liberal opposition to a Bayh VP slot.
Pravda (08/13) quotes Flynt Leverett on Georgia's strategic mistake in provoking Russian aggression.
Israel E News (08/13) quotes Daniel Levy on Israel's shaky ceasefire with Hamas.
Washington Independent (08/13) quotes Peter Bergen on safe havens for Al Qaeda.
Financial Times (08/12) cites Steve Clemons on conservatives who support Obama.
Guardian (08/12) mentions Peter Bergen on American elites' evolving attitudes towards fighting terror.

ASP In the News | August 4-6

Ian McAllister — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 20:23:00 -0400

Associated Press (08/06) cites William Hartung on potential cooperation with China on energy security.
Washington Post (08/06) quotes Flynt Leverett on Iran's continuing uranium enrichment.
National Interest (08/01) cites Peter Bergen on Washington's evolving strategy against terrorism.
Somerville Journal (08/01) quotes Daniel Levy's analysis on Israel negotiating through Turkey and Egypt.

ASP In the News | August 1-4

Ian McAllister — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 14:34:00 -0400

iStockAnalyst (08/01) features Steve Clemons discussing Obama's need for a degree of moral flexibility.
Washington Independent (07/30) quotes Peter Bergen on the need for more troops in Afghanistan.
Foreign Policy (07/30) cites Daniel Levy on potential candidates to lead Kadima after Olmert's resignation.
The Window (07/19) talks with Parag Khanna on the U.S.' relationship with the Kurdish Regional Government.

ASP In the News | July 25-28

Ian McAllister — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 20:23:00 -0400

Christian Science Monitor (07/28) quotes Peter Bergen on the global elite's evolving views on Al Qaeda.
Daily News Egypt (07/28) features Daniel Levy explaining Israel's reasoning behind the prisoner transfer.
Wall Street Journal (07/28) quotes Daniel Levy on Obama avoiding the Palestinian issue on his trip abroad.
UN Dispatch (07/27) features Peter Bergen arguing a need for additional soldiers in Afghanistan.
New York Times (07/25) posts Michael A. Cohen's examination of Obama's Berlin symbolism.

ASP In the News | July 16-18

Ian McAllister — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:33:00 -0400

The Economist (07/17) quotes Peter Bergen on Al Qaeda's self destructive tendencies.
iStock Analyst (07/17) features Steve Clemons arguing against claims of success in Iraq.
The New York Observer (07/17) reviews Michael Cohen's new book, Live from the Campaign Trail.
The Moderate Voice (07/16) cites Daniel Levy on evolving aspects of the Israeli Palestinian divide.
The Newshour with Jim Lehrer (07/16) interviews Daniel Levy on Israel's controversial trade with Hamas.
Financial Times (07/16) quotes Steve Clemons on the Cheney's loss of influence in the Bush Administration.
Policy Innovations (07/14) features Flynt Leverett discussing the rise of China on global business and security.
Freezer Box (07/11) cites Jeffrey Lewis on the growing role for civil society in nuclear nonproliferation.

The Other Palestinian Crisis

Brian Till — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 19:37:00 -0400

Nahr al-Bared, the devastated Palestinian refugee camp north of Beirut where the Lebanese army battled Fatah al-Islam last summer (photo by Brian Till)

Last night, following a concert at the Roman Amphitheatre in Amman, Jordan, six musicians were attacked by a sole gunman as they boarded their bus. The AP identified the gunman as Palestinian refugee Thaer Weheidi, a 19 year old resident of the Baqaa refugee camp. None were killed, though Weheidi, who turned his weapon upon himself after being chased by police, is said to be in critical condition.

While the Jordanian government holds the act was criminally motivated and not terrorist related, CNN has reported claims that the attacker yelled "Allahu Akbar" before firing on the bus.

The incident adds a new dimension to an ongoing and possibly blossoming battle. Palestinian refugees have long been a bastion of instability in the region, but of late their activity appears to be festering, rather than waning.

Most of the action is happening in Lebanon. Last summer's battle between the Lebanese army (LAF) and the jihadi group Fatah al- Islam took nearly three months to play out, and ended with the annihilation of the Nahr al- Bared refugee camp and the escape of Shaker al Absi, the group's leader. Those living in the camp have sought refugee in Lebanon's dozen other sights, and the projected cost of rebuilding the camp are in the $380-400 million range. 

The camps in Lebanon -- where over 400,000 live in the worst conditions in the region in terms of Palestinian living -- are virtually lawless regions, in which the LAF does not set foot, allowing factions of the PLO and various jihadi groups play out their differences with bombs and bullets.

The situation is only getting worse. In the last several weeks, fighting has intensified, the leader of the Sunni group Jund al-Sham, Imad Yassin, was nearly killed by a bomb in the Ain el-Helweh camp in south Leabanon, where several groups with known Al Qeada links are currently operating. Clashes in the Burj al-Barajneh camp have also sparked fears of another war like last summer's.

In recent months, statements by both Zayman al-Zawahiri and Osama bin Laden have suggested their hopes that a campaign against Israel will become the next major front in their jihad, a battle for which a foothold in Lebanon would be exceedingly useful.

While I was in Beirut earlier this summer, an attempted suicide bomber was killed on the fringes of the Ein el-Helweh camp before he was able to detonate his explosive belt. Sources both within the UN and the military independently suggested that the government had effectively spun the media, and that the bomber had not been Palestinian, as alleged, but rather a Saudi.

But al-Qaeda might not be the only instigator of this uptick in violence. The New Yorker's ace investigative reporter Sy Hersh published a story last year suggesting that the U.S. had a adopted a policy based on financially supporting Sunni Salafi militants in hopes of counterbalancing the rising strength of Shi'a Hezbollah, a patron of Iran. The middleman for the U.S. support, Hersh suggests, is Prince Bandar of Saudi Arabia.

For those versed in foreign policy -- or even just Tom Hanks films for that matter -- this is clearly reminiscent of two major American foreign policy ventures of the past: Afghanistan in the 80's and Iran-Contra, neither of which we find ourselves tremendously proud of today.

ASP In the News | June 25-30

Ian McAllister — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 20:11:00 -0400

Khaleej Times (06/30) features Parag Khanna's analysis of the UAE as a regional power in the Middle East.
The Washington Independent (06/30) quotes Peter Bergen on Al Qaeda's up-and-coming coming leadership.
The Philadelphia Enquirer (06/29) quotes Steve Clemons on policy conflicts within the Bush Administration.
Global Voices (06/28) cites Daniel Levy comparing Sarkozy and Bush's speeches before the Israeli Knesset.
The Washington Post (06/27) quotes Steve Clemons on North Korea's removal from the Terrorism Blacklist.
Project on Government Oversight (06/25) discusses William Hartung's proposal to reduce government waste.

Making Sense of the Arab-Israel Nightmare

Ian McAllister — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 19:34:00 -0400

If you just read the wires coming out of the Holy Land, the Israeli-Palestinian situation is a confused mess. Israel is negotiating with Syria, Hamas, and the PLO; Olmert is one step ahead of an indictment, and more and more Israeli politicians are calling for a military strike on Iran.

What have been lost within the noise of the 24-hour news cycle are the larger strategic issues confronting the United States in our inconstant role as mediator: how do the various Palestinian factions come together as an acceptable, effective partner in negotiations? Are Israelis finally ready to come to terms with the land-for-peace equation? Can a new U.S. president focus enough energy on Israel-Palestine when Iraq and Iran loom so large?

America does not have unlimited time to get a deal. The developments of the past couple weeks-including the revelations of indirect talks between Syria and Israel, and the recent, albeit failing, cease-fire between Israel and Hamas-provide further evidence of America's diminished capacity to influence events in the region.

These questions, explored in Aaron Miller's new book, "The Much Too Promised Land," will be the point of departure for a lively conversation on Friday at the New America Foundation with three Middle East experts and former policy advisers representing American, Israeli and Palestinian perspectives on the conflict.

Wasted Chances for Peace

Patrick Doherty — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 10:56:00 -0400

We all know there have been many missed opportunities for peace in the Middle East, but 21 over the past eight years? Michael Shtender-Auerbach made this useful compilation of all the efforts that went no where over the last two terms.

Bush's Bluffing Has Made Mideast Peace a Bad Bet
The Jewish Daily Forward
By Michael Shtender-Auerbach
June 12, 2008

From Taba to Tony, from the Rose Garden to Riyadh, from Geneva to Gaza - in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, no American president has been presented with more opportunities for reaching a true and lasting peace than George W. Bush. But with just a half a year to go before he leaves the White House and little indication of a breakthrough, it is all but certain that Bush will leave behind a conflict more intractable than ever, not to mention a situation in Gaza that ranks as the world's third-largest humanitarian crisis after Somalia and Darfur.

This is more than just an exercise in historical finger pointing. When the 44th president of the United States is sworn in next January, he will inherit a legacy of failed chances at Middle East peacemaking. To borrow a phrase from Abba Eban, the president has never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity - to be exact, 21 opportunities over the past eight years to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Twenty-one: That's blackjack, with no jackpot.

The next president, be it John McCain or Barack Obama, would do well to revisit those missed chances, for they offer an instructive lesson: American diplomacy in the Middle East needs to be about more than lofty rhetoric and half-baked initiatives - it needs to be about strategically pursuing the path of peace, supporting those that seek peace and following through on the necessary steps to achieve peace.

1.      Taba Summit, January 2001: As Bill Clinton left office and Bush assumed it, the Israeli and Palestinian negotiation teams met in Taba, Egypt, to continue what was started in 2000 at Camp David. The summit dealt with final-status questions and were by far the most robust, complete and hopeful talks between Israelis and Palestinians since Oslo.

2.      Mitchell Report, April 2001: While the second intifada raged on, former Senator George Mitchell headed a fact-finding mission whose report outlined a set of confidence-building measures to end the intifada, stop settlement expansion and bring the parties back to the negotiating table.

3.      Tenet Plan, June 2001: CIA Director George Tenet, hoping to solidify the recommendations of the Mitchell Report, went to Jerusalem to detail a security plan to end the violence and resume negotiations.

4.      Arab Peace Initiative, March 2002: The initiative, also known as the Saudi Peace Initiative, was a watershed in peacemaking efforts. Based on Security Council resolutions 242 and 338, the Arab League unanimously agreed to normalize relations with Israel as the outcome of a negotiated two-state solution. It also included a reference to an agreed-upon solution to the question of Palestinian refugees, signaling that Israel's objections to a massive return of refugees were beginning to find acceptance in the Arab world.

5.      The Madrid Quartet, April 2002: A quartet of Middle East mediators was constituted with the purpose of multi-lateralizing the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. It combined the political superpower of the United States with the financial backing of the European Union and the international legitimacy of the United Nations, as well as with the balancing influence, as seen through Arab eyes, of Russia.

6.      Rose Garden Speech, June 2002: Bush, to the surprise of many, became the first American president to openly state that a major American foreign policy objective would be to support and bring about a two-state solution and an end to Israeli occupation. A trailblazing speech, it signaled that some in the White House were beginning to understand the significance of the American role in the conflict.

7.      U.N. Security Council resolution 1397, June 2002: The resolution affirmed unanimous international support for the vision outlined in Bush's Rose Garden speech.

8.      Road Map for Peace, April 2003: Based on the parameters set out by Bush's Rose Garden speech, the Madrid Quartet developed a comprehensive plan, with the goal of delivering an independent Palestinian state living side-by-side in peace with a secure Israel.

9.      U.N. Security Council resolution 1515, May 2003: The resolution affirmed unanimous international support for the Quartet's Road Map for a permanent two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

10. Geneva Initiative, December 2003: Drafted by former Israeli negotiators and their Palestinian counterparts, the Geneva Initiative maps out in comprehensive detail a blueprint for a permanent status solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with goals based on the parameters spelled out at Camp David, as well as on the Road Map and the Arab Peace Initiative. While not an official document, most credit it as the impetus for Israel's withdrawal from Gaza in 2005.

11. James Wolfenshohn appointed envoy, April 2004: The former World Bank president was appointed as the Quartet's special envoy for Israel's Gaza disengagement. An American Jew trusted by both Israel and Washington, Wolfensohn would resign his post in 2005 in deep disappointment at the way the Bush administration systematically undermined his efforts.

12. Death of Yasser Arafat, November 2004: While Arafat was revered by Palestinians as the founder of the Palestinian Liberation Organization and Palestinian national movement, his death also entailed an enormous opportunity for change and for greater democratic governance for Palestinians.

13. Mahmoud Abbas elected president, January 2005: A non-violent pragmatist and long-time advocate of negotiations, after being elected he immediately called for an end to the intifada, a cessation of the armed struggle for independence and the resumption of peace negotiations with Israel.

14. Sharm el-Sheikh Summit, February 2005: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak hosted Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Abbas and King Abdullah of Jordan to re-commit the parties to the Road Map and formally bring an end to the second intifada.

15. Gaza disengagement, August 2005: The disengagement showed that Israel was capable of and willing to cease its settlement enterprise and withdraw from Palestinian territory. But instead of building momentum for a further withdrawal of settlers from the West Bank and reviving peace talks, the Bush administration expressed understanding for Israel's painful domestic struggle and rewarded Sharon with the promise that existing demographic realities in occupied territory would be taken into account in eventual final-status talks.

16. Agreement on Movement and Access, November 2005: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice negotiated an 11th-hour agreement to improve Palestinian living conditions by creating parameters for better movement and access for Palestinians. The main purpose was to re-open the Rafah border crossing from Gaza to Egypt, a fundamental precondition for a peace deal. The border remains closed.

17. Baker-Hamilton Commission, May 2006: James Baker and Lee Hamilton's commission, officially known as the Iraq Study Group, opened up the previously taboo "linkage" discussion by arguing that the "United States will not be able to achieve its goals in the Middle East unless the United States deals directly with the Arab-Israeli conflict."

18. Prisoners Document, June 2006: Palestinian prisoners held by Israel from groups including Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine drafted a "National Reconciliation Document." The signatories agreed to a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, marking a potentially crucial opportunity to co-opt Islamist militants and create a broad Palestinian consensus in favor of negotiations and territorial compromise.

19. Mecca Agreement, March 2007: To address the emerging crisis between Hamas and Fatah in the West Bank and Gaza, Saudi Arabia convened national unity talks in Mecca to hammer out a unity government. Instead of embracing the accord, the Bush administration reportedly engaged in a clandestine effort to arm Fatah strongman Muhammad Dahlan against Hamas, which reacted with a military takeover of Gaza that June.

20. Tony Blair appointed envoy, June 2007: The former British prime minister, with his high profile and stature, was tasked with improving Palestinian governance, economics, and institution-building. While Washington supported Blair's involvement, the State Department made clear his mandate did not include that of peacemaker.

21. ... and blackjack, November 2007: Bush convened a major summit in Annapolis, Md., and coaxed Israelis and Palestinians into a commitment to try to reach an agreement by the time he left office in January 2009. Six months later, the president has yet to deliver any real progress.

Michael Shtender-Auerbach, CEO of Social Risks LLC, is co-director of the New America Foundation's Law and Globalization Initiative.