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HEALTH REFORM: CBO Score in ... 5... 4...

November 18, 2009 - 12:36pm

It's Wednesday (Sunday's football dissapointments seem so long ago) and there is a lot going on in the health care reform world. Where to start?

Reid will unveil his healthcare bill to Democratic Senators today at 5 pm at a special caucus meeting.

Senator Reid is "cautiously optimistic" that he will be able to secure the 60 votes he needs in order to defeat GOP procedural objections and move forward on the bill by this weekend.

But what can we even expect to see included in his bill?

Politico's Chris Frates tells us that:

Reid's bill is expected to include a national government insurance plan with a provision for states to opt out. Reid is also expected to adjust a 40 percent excise tax on high-value insurance plans by raising the threshold at which insurers would pay the fee. He's expected to make up for that lost revenue by proposing an expansion of the Medicare payroll tax.

And the Wall Street Journal's Janet Adamy and Greg Hitt insist that:

The Senate's sweeping health bill is expected to call for a new long-term-care insurance program ... People familiar with the legislation said Tuesday that it would include the long-term-care program, which would pay cash to people if they become disabled. The late Sen. Edward Kennedy pushed to include the provision in the health bill that passed though the Senate health committee, and the House included a similar provision in its bill. Employees would have a choice of whether to participate in the long-term-care program, and those who did would have premiums deducted from paychecks.

Reid expressed that he would like to keep the price of health reform around $900 billion. Fortunately, Democratic aids got a sneak peek at the CBO data.

The Washington Post's Shailagh Murray and Lori Montgomery report that:

Preliminary estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the legislation's official scorekeeper, have indicated that the Senate measure would cost far less than the bill the House approved last week, while lowering the federal deficit further over the long term.

But not so fast.

We can expect a hold up in the Senate from three Democrats: Nelson, Landrieu and Lincoln.

Carl Hulse of the New York Times tells us:

Senator Ben Nelson, Democrat of Nebraska, says he is not sure he is ready to help a Democratic health care proposal clear even the most preliminary hurdle: gaining the 60 votes his party’s leaders need to open debate on the measure later this week. Two of his fellow Democrats, Senators Mary L. Landrieu of Louisiana and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, are proving tough sells as well, raising the prospect that one or perhaps all three of them could scuttle the bill before the fight over it even begins on the Senate floor.

Each senator has their own concerns. (The three submitted a letter requesting a 72 hour delay so that they have ample time to read the bill once the CBO scores are released.) Hulse notes that "Some senators who were previously considered potential obstacles to starting the debate have made clear that they will vote with the party at this point, drawing a distinction between this initial advance and later votes of more consequence."

Stupak, too.

The Hill's Eric Zimmerman writes:

Rep. Bar Stupak (D-Mich) pledged on Tuesday morning to defeat healthcare reform legislation if his abortion amendment is taken out, saying to 10 to 20 anti-abortion-rights Democrats would vote against a bill with weaker language. ‘They're not going to take it out,' Stupak said on ‘Fox and Friends,' referring to Senate Democrats. ‘If they do, healthcare will not move forward.'

And, of course, the Republicans offer their own two cents.

Click here to read the letter Jeb Bush, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Michael Leavitt, Mark Sanford and several other lawmakers sent this morning to Obama, Pelosi, and Reid.

But the dismal scientists are optimistic.

A group of 20 economists sent a letter to the President this morning reminding him of the four key elements they believe are critical components of health reform legislation.These measures are in the Senate Finance bill, and they hope that they will also be included in Reid's bill.

And a PowerPoint presentation created by McKinsey & Company, titled "Health Care Reform and Implications for Key Stakeholders: What this Could Mean for Client X" leaked. Their analysis may please worried health care CEOs.

McKinsey argues that in light of health reform, "The medical-care industry would need to make significant, and socially beneficial, changes in response to the bills currently moving through Congress; but such changes won’t come remotely close to destroying the industry’s profitability." Larry Levitt, vice president for special projects at the Kaiser Family Foundation, says that, “One generally comes away with the sense that [McKinsey] sees reform as changing incentives, first more modestly and then, potentially, in a more fundamental way in later years. That’s a good sign.”

So health reform by December 18?

Politico's Jake Sherman reports:

Senate and House leaders are hoping to close up shop for the year by Dec. 18, even though neither chamber has figured out the end game for health care reform and must-pass appropriations bills. And that doesn't even take into account a sudden push by House Democrats to start work on some sort of "jobs" legislation. Nonetheless, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said Tuesday he and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) are "focused on December 18" as a last day for this session of Congress.

Boy, have they got a lot to do in the next few weeks.