We hear a lot of estimates about how many people are losing health insurance during the recession. A paper just posted on the Health Affairs website suggests we're now on a path toward having 52 million uninsured by 2010. Authors Todd Gilmer and Richard Kronick say that's a conservative estimate.

The paper, "Hard Times and Health Insurance" showed that the number of workers without health insurance in recent years marches in tandem with the rising costs of health insurance—the "affordability index." Now with the recession, "the fraction of workers who are uninsured is expected to increase sharply, by 2.1 percentage points, to 26.4 percent in 2010." That's more than one-in-four working people going without health coverage.

For the entire non-elderly population, not just workers, the researchers projected that 19.2 percent will be uninsured in 2010 next year, an increase of 2.0 percentage points from 2007. That's 6.9 million more uninsured people. And the number (read the article if you want the gory statistical details) may well be higher. They write:

Given major uncertainties about the depth and length of the recession, about federal and state policy responses, and about the effect of any public policy response, it would be foolish to attempt to offer precise forecasts of the number of uninsured Americans. These caveats notwithstanding, our work demonstrates that if personal income grows as slowly as projected by the CBO and health care costs grow at the rate projected by the CMS, then the number of uninsured people is likely to grow by at least 6.9 million during 2008-10.

The solution: "Major public policy changes" aka comprehensive health reform that will expand coverage, preserve choice, and restrain costs. The authors concluded, "It is heartening that efforts to solve the problem are a priority for the Obama administration and the 111th Congress."