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POLITICS: Of Polls and Pols

October 3, 2008 - 12:56pm

Two polls on health care out this week. Two pols on health care (briefly) last night. First the numbers.

Jane Sarasohn-Kahn at Health Populi takes a look at the latest Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll. Not surprisingly the economy remains the top issue on voters' minds. Fifty-six percent of those surveyed listed it as their top concern and as Jane notes, the survey was in the field from September 8 to 13—before the financial crisis came to a head. But as the economic crisis worsens, concerns over health care continue to rise. Health care moved past gas prices into third place with 21 percent of those surveyed listing it as their top issue. Iraq remains No. 2, with 25 percent of respondents listing it as their top issue.

Looking at how respondents' political identification influences their views on health care, the poll finds some interesting results. Health care has remained stable as a top concern for Democrats (25 percent list it as their top issue), dropped for Republicans (11 percent), and risen in by eight points since April for independents (26 percent).

Getting into specifics, the poll asked respondents which candidate would do more to address various aspects of cost and coverage (see chart below). Respondents were split on who would do more to lower total spending on health care (38 percent said McCain, 37 percent said Obama), but three times as many registered voters said they believed Obama would do more than McCain to help cover the uninsured.

 

On the other hand, a new poll from Harris Interactive finds that four in ten of the registered voters surveyed either don't know or don't think either candidate's plan would be better than the other for them. Trying to understand voters' lack of understanding of the candidates' plans, Jennifer Huget over at the Washington Post's health blog, The Checkup, turned to Robert Blendon, an expert in the politics of health care at Harvard's School of Public Health and the Kennedy School:

[Blendon] tells me there's no expectation among the poll-takers that the people polled have studied the sources in any depth at all. "The majority of people never look at the plans" themselves, he says. Instead, they glean their opinions from secondary sources: "They cue off media coverage, people they respect. If they're partisan, they cue off party leaders. If they run a business, they cue off the chamber [of commerce]."

Which brings us to the pols portion of this post. Health care was the topic of one question in last night's vice-presidential debate and came up as well during discussions of deregulation and taxes. Here are the vice-presidential candidate in their own words excerpted from the New York Times transcript:

Governor Sarah Palin on McCain's health care plan:

He's proposing a $5,000 tax credit for families so that they can get out there and they can purchase their own health care coverage. That's a smart thing to do. That's budget neutral. That doesn't cost the government anything as opposed to Barack Obama's plan to mandate health care coverage and have universal government run program and unless you're pleased with the way the federal government has been running anything lately, I don't think that it's going to be real pleasing for Americans to consider health care being taken over by the feds. But a $5,000 health care credit through our income tax that's budget neutral. That's going to help. And he also wants to erase those artificial lines between states so that through competition, we can cross state lines and if there's a better plan offered somewhere else, we would be able to purchase that. So affordability and accessibility will be the keys there with that $5,000 tax credit also being offered

Senator Joe Biden responding:

Now, with regard to the—to the health care plan, you know, it's with one hand you giveth, the other you take it. You know how Barack Obama—excuse me, do you know how John McCain pays for his $5,000 tax credit you're going to get, a family will get?

He taxes as income every one of you out there, every one of you listening who has a health care plan through your employer. That's how he raises $3.6 trillion, on your— taxing your health care benefit to give you a $5,000 plan, which his Web site points out will go straight to the insurance company.

And then you're going to have to replace a $12,000—that's the average cost of the plan you get through your employer—it costs $12,000. You're going to have to pay—replace a $12,000 plan, because 20 million of you are going to be dropped. Twenty million of you will be dropped.

So you're going to have to place—replace a $12,000 plan with a $5,000 check you just give to the insurance company. I call that the "Ultimate Bridge to Nowhere."

Not surprisingly FactCheck.org found something to criticize in both Biden's and Palin's statements, but found that Palin fell particularly short on health care, both in her claims about McCain's plan and her critique of Obama's. Still, whatever the debate rhetoric, the polls are clear. Health care remains a major issue in this election. With four-in-ten voters (and half of independents) unable to say which plan would help them the most, it seems imperative for the pols to be clear also, laying out the specific differences in how they will go about making access to affordable, comprehensive health care a reality for all Americans. We expect we'll hear more in the next two debates between Obama and McCain.