At the Sacramento Bee, Dan Weintraub examined the changes in the rainy day fund that were part of the budget agreement. He was skeptical but also suggested they could, in time, prove to be a victory for Gov. Schwarzenegger. I'd bet against that, for reasons both political and budgetary.

First, the political. The rainy day fund changes are not official yet--they need to be approved by voters. And there is so much anger about the budget agreement among the state's powerful labor unions, particularly those representing public employees, that it seems likely the rainy day fund may face an aggressive "no" campaign in a special election next year. Such a campaign will be difficult for Schwarzenegger to win.

Second, the budgetary. The rainy day fund's supporters see it as having only modest effects. It wouldn't end the state's budget dysfunction. It might make the budget spikes -- and thus the budget down years -- less severe. Such a half-measure is unlikely to inspire much passion among voters, while an angry labor campaign against a budget agreement that all sides acknowledge is problematic would be an easy sell.