Billions: The Big Picture

I admit that my last blog may not have convinced many people that it is urgent to act on global warming unless you are a cat lover like I am.  So this time around I'm going to make my point by discussing a topic we can all relate to: cars.

According to Daniel Sperling, "...more than one billion vehicles populate the earth today" (Two Billion Cars: Driving Towards Sustainability).  He warns that we are rapidly approaching two billion cars (probably in about 15 years) primarily due to an increase in demand from developing countries such as China and India, as well as continued population growth.  Matt Rosenberg says, "The world's current... growth rate is about 1.14%, representing a doubling time of 61 years. We can expect the world's population of 6.5 billion to become 13 billion by 2067 if current growth continues" (geography.about.com). 

Are we ready for an extra billion cars on the road?  Are we ready for an extra 6.5 billion people inhabiting this earth?

Last November, President Obama announced greenhouse gas reduction targets for the United States.  The targets aim to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and an additional 80% by 2050 (www.uctv.tv).  These targets seem attainable, but what happens when there are twice as many cars on the road and twice as many people inhabiting the earth?  Luckily the targets stay the same even though the variable changes. If stray cats don't convince you the time to act is now, perhaps that will.

We are fortunate there are people in this world such as Senator Fran Pavley.  Fran was a middle school teacher from Agoura Hills, CA, who left that challenge to work for the California State Assembly (and eventually for the State Senate).  She has authored some of California's "gold standard" climate change legislation including Assembly Bill 1493 (Pavley), which was signed into law in 2002.  AB1493 directed the California Air Resources Board to adopt regulations that require carmakers to reduce global warming emissions from new passenger cars and light trucks beginning in 2009.  The regulations are projected to achieve a 23% reduction in global warming from new vehicles by 2012 and a 30% reduction in global warming emissions from new vehicles by 2016.  17 other states have also adopted or have announced plans to adopt California's vehicle emission standard.

In 2007, the EPA denied California a waiver to set more stringent auto emissions and fuel efficiency standards than required by federal law. In response, California and 15 other states filed suit against the federal government.  In early 2009, President Obama signed a memorandum requiring the Environmental Protection Agency to reconsider the application by California. 

Transportation is a significant source of GHG emissions, accounting for almost 28% of total U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2004 (according to the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2004, published in 2006 by the US EPA).

Therefore, it is imperative to regulate tailpipe emissions and pave the way for alternative fuel vehicles to rule the road in order to reach emissions reduction targets. 

This is also an incredible opportunity for Detroit.  By following the Pavley bill regulations for new vehicles they produce, car manufactures can have a major impact on tailpipe emissions reductions and can hold an important place in history.  Not to mention, their sales will likely skyrocket since cars that get excellent miles per gallon are in high demand.   Not only is this an opportunity for them to save their companies, but this is their responsibility to their consumers.

The time to act is now. This is not just about us today, but about the 6.5 billion children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren, great-great grandchildren...I think you get the big picture.