A Little More on 1A Polling
I sent Rick Claussen's memo, referenced below, to Mark Baldassare of PPIC, and asked him for a response to the claims on voter turnout. Here's what Mark wrote back:
"Thanks, our poll does not assume a specific turnout for the
election. In fact, we never make predictions about the size and
composition of the electorate before an election. We define likely
voters through answers to a series of questions about voter
registration, intentions to vote, past voting, interest in politics, and
attention to election news. Rather than focus on the size of our sample
as it relates to the percent of registered voters, let's consider the
partisan makeup among our likely voters -- Democrat 45%; Republicans
36%; dts/others=19%. Would a low turnout produce a more Republican or a
more Democratic electorate? This will be important, since Republicans
are opposed to 1A to 1E will Democrats favor each of them...."
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