The Strategic Mistakes Of the Prop 11 Campaign

Redistricting reform is always a tough sell--too complicated, and the partisan voters on both sides are too skeptical. But Prop 11, the California initiative to take the power to draft legislative districts away from the legislature, has the best chance of any such measure. As opposed to 2005, when a redistricting reform initiative failed badly under an onslaught from public employee unions, the opposition this time is relatively weak and poorly funded. But the initiative has far less than majority support in public polls. Why? The campaign messaging is a mess. 

What's the problem? The campaign's ads are anti-politician blasts at the legislature for their many sins. Press conference seek to gin up populist anger. But this message doesn't match the reality of the measure and the folks leading the campaign. The most prominent backer is, of all things, an unpopular politician -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is today getting attention for fundraising he's doing in Florida for the measure. And the campaign is even boasting of the support of non-Californian politicians such as New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg. The billionaire mayor was accurately called a hypocrite in the New York press this week for coming to Los Angeles to campaign  for Prop 11 (becaues of the importance of the will of the people) even as he seeks to avoid a popular referendum on a plan that would extend term limits and permit him to run for a third term as mayor. 

Here's my question for the Prop 11 supporters: How can you run a campaign that's anti-politician while your campaign is depending on rich and famous politicians like Bloomberg and Schwarzenegger? It's no wonder that support is soft and voter confusion about the measure is high. On top of that, the campaign has made a series of over-the-top claims about redistricting reform that they can't prove. (That Prop 11 will make the legislature more responsive, that it will somehow fix the budget). Prop 11 has its virtues. It ends a conflict of interest in lawmakers choosing their own districts, but there's little evidence it will make a material change in the legislature.

Instead, Prop 11 supporters should be running a subdued campaign that emphasizes how modest the measure is. Radio and TV ads should talk only about the details of the measure--the conflict of interest we now have, and the way the citizens' commission proposed by the initiative might work. I'd suggest that the ads nod to the initiative's modest by calling it a "first step" in an effort to reform California politics. This sort of argument would have the advantage of being true. Prop 11's backers support other changes that would make a more profound difference in the state's political culture, like ending the super-majority requirement for budgets and establishing open, or non-partisan, primaries.

Immediately, the Prop 11 campaign should knock off the anti-politician rhetoric.. People know they hate politicians right now-- they're inundated with populist blasts at the political class, so inundated that I wonder how much value such criticism has. Voters want solutions, even modest ones. So talk about the details.. Since Prop 11has the bipartisan support of politicians, the campaign may mention a few of those politicians to show it's not threatening to partisans. But the campaign's leaders should think about asking Gov. Schwarzenegger not to campaign for the measure. Doesn't he have a budget and economic crisis to handle? I suspect that any dollars he's raising in Florida aren't worth the damage from news stories about his traveling there. Such fundraising does not match the message of a campaign that should be about political reform and clean government. And Schwarzenegger's popularity is such (approval rating at 40 percent or below--even lower than that in a private poll I saw this week in Sacramento) that Prop 11 is unlikely to benefit -- and could be hurt -- by his association with the redistricting reform cause.

Bottom line: Prop 11 requires a softer sell.