Oppositions to Gay Marriage Ban Grows In Poll; Redistricting Initiative Also Weak

Fifty-four percent of likely voters oppose Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage, in a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California. (Note to those clicking on the poll link: The findings are first reported on page 7 of the poll document). Only 40 percent support the measure. 

Initiatives that face that kind of opposition two months before an election almost always lose. But the PPIC offers a few caveats. Public attitudes continue to be split -- 47 to 47 -- on the question of whether gay couples should be permitted to marry. Those numbers haven't budged in three years. And the poll finds that opponents of same-sex marriage care more about the issue than the supporters of same-sex marriage.

The same poll shows less than 50 percent support for Prop 4, an initiative to require parental notification before a minor secures an abortion. And the poll shows Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has far less than majority support. It's 39 percent yes, 36 percent no. And the measure fails to draw majority support from Democrats, Republicans or independents. Some of those involved in the measure have told me that redistricting has a chance this time because the campaign against it has been slow to organize and spend money. Perhaps. But it appears that a "no" campaign may not be required to defeat the measure. It could fail purely on the lingering skepticism of voters who have turned down similar redistricting proposals time after time.

One other note about Prop 11: It also could be hurt by its strong association with Gov. Schwarzenegger, who was talking up the idea again today in a column by the LA Times' George Skelton. His approval rating continues to drop, from 49 percent among likely voters in July to 43 percent now. Overall, his rating is in the 30s. A governor that unpopular is more likely to hurt the causes he endorses than he is to help them. And Prop 11's supporters seem intent on running an anti-politician campaign. Having the governor lead the charge contradicts that messaging. Schwarzenegger's views about redistricting are genuine and strongly held, but the best thing Schwarzenegger could do to help Prop 11 and the cause of redistricting reform is to keep his mouth shut.