LAT Poll: Anti-Gay Marriage Initiative In Trouble
But, you say, the LA Times poll shows a lead of 54-35 for the initiative to put a ban on gay marriage in the state constitution! The story even says, "Californians narrowly reject gay marriage." That's a misreading of the poll.
The problem for opponents of same sex marriage: initiatives with numbers like those six months before an election lose. (The rule of thumb is that you want to have at least 60 percent support at this time, because support almost always falls). "No" campaigns are easier to win than most, and this is a "no" campaign that will be well-funded, get lots of attention, and can point to a Supreme Court opinion written by Republicans. The more I think about it, the more the decision by the supreme court is exquisitely timed for those who support same-sex marriage. First off, the gay marriage supporters get to be on the "no" side of this measure, making their path easier. Second, the central conservative argument against the court's legaliziation of gay marriage -- "judges are making law!" -- is undercut by the fact that the voters are going to be able to vote on the question in November. And that timing will push the debate towards the human beings who want to get married. The bottom line: California voters may be about to do something very big.


















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