Exploratory Committees? The Real Filings For Governor Wannabes Will Be Initiatives

Former Congressman and current UC Berkeley business school dean Tom Campbell, an independent-minded Republican known for his work as Schwarzenegger's budget director and his love of really bad movies, has opened a committee to explore running for California governor in 2010. On the other side of the aisle, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom has done the same thing.

These exploratory filings are being closely watched by the dwindling number of reporters who still cover state politics. And while they are important, those of you interested in the 2010 race would do well to keep your eye on a different set of filings: ballot initiative filings at the attorney general's office.

With Schwarzenegger termed out, the fields of gubernatorial candidates on both the Republican and Democrat sides will be large. Most of the contenders are not widely known in California. So each will face the challenge: how to attract attention and distinguish oneself from the field. Many contenders will conclude that sponsoring a ballot initiative is one way to do that. So take a close look at those initiative filings. It's doubtful that you'll see a candidate's name on the filing of the original initiative. It'll likely be a lawyer or advocate. (The candidate can stick his name on the initiative later). The question is: to which candidate is the lawyer linked?

Such filings are likely to begin in earnest later this year, to make sure there's plenty of time to qualify the initiatives for the primary ballot in 2010. It takes time to get a title and summary, make changes, and get the signatures. But the search for ideas and the drafting of potential initiatives already has begun behind the scenes, I'm told. So let the games, and the scrutiny, begin.