The American Strategist

ASP In the News | May 12-14

Ian McAllister — Wed, 14 May 2008 16:33:00 -0400

The Associated Press (05/ 13) quotes Daniel Levy on the state of the Middle East peace process.
Foreign Policy in Focus (05/12) cites William Hartung on lessons learned in the Iraq War.
The New York Observer (05/12) mentions Parag Khanna in a discussion of the state of US hegemony.
World Politics Review (05/12) cites Flynt Leverett on China-US tensions.
US News (05/09) quotes Steve Clemons on Hillary Clinton's fading political future.

Consumer Spending Sending Mixed Signals for U.S. Economy

Ian McAllister — Wed, 14 May 2008 15:23:00 -0400

A 0.2% overall decline in April retail sales masked divergent patterns in U.S. consumer spending. While auto spending decreased by 2.8%, spending on non-auto goods actually rose by 0.5%, a larger than expected increase. With consumer spending accounting for over 70% of the U.S. economy, some see this resiliency as a sign the economy may be closer to recovery than previously thought. Others say it's a statistical blip and expect continued contraction throughout 2008 as gas prices and inflation increase.

Snapshot asks, will high gas prices and weak auto sales further drag down consumers in 2008?

Financial Times - US retail data show signs of resilience
Wall Street Journal - Weak Recession? Not So Fast, Say Some
Haver - U.S. Retail Sales Fell, Non-auto sales firmer
Reuters - Bullish ex-auto U.S. retail sales cheer dollar

China's Earthquake: Tragedy, Test

Patrick Doherty — Mon, 12 May 2008 18:48:00 -0400

Today's news that Sichuan Province suffered an earthquake measuring 7.9 is not welcome news. Any region of the world would suffer significant loss of life after a tremblor of that degree and I fear the early numbers of casualties will only increase. Our sympathies go out to the Chinese victims and their families.

The strategic question is, what impact will the quake have on China going forward? Politically, the Chinese Government is under pressure to show they learned the lesson of this year's winter snowstorms that paralyzed the nation and demonstrated organizational weakness. If they don't demonstrate improved preparedness and effective rescue operations, the central government in Beijing will be weakened as the provincial governments adapt to deal with the anxiety of a massive population moving inexorably into closer, more interdependent quarters. New America Foundation out-going chairman, James Fallows, writing from Beijing, begins to examine the PR response of Beijing. I've attached it below.

If the loss of life is grave, however, the pressure to reform will extend beyond preparedness to prevention. This is what happened as far back as the great fire of London in 1666 and as recently as the Kobe earthquake a decade ago. The McKinsey Global Institute's recent report on China talks about China's cities holding 1 billion people by 2030. Prevention will mean the adoption of stricter building code standards and increased code enforcement, slowing down the engine of Chinese growth--which has so far had a decidedly dubious record in terms of public and environmental safety.

Hopefully, the numbers of people hurt by this tragedy will be few. But developing countries, even ones as big and sophisticated as China, generally trade off consumer and public safety for speed and profit.

***Update--5/13***

It looks like my fears have been born out. This morning's reports say at least 12,000 are feared dead and 18,000 more unaccounted for in the city of Mianzhu. This is the worst natural disaster in China for three decades. This is definitely a test for Beijing, much bigger than the winter snows. Let us hope it does not come near the 1976 earthquake when at least 240,000 people perished when the city of Tangshan collapsed in an earthquake of similar magnitude, which had its own grave political aftershocks.

Will the Hu/Wen government use the crisis to call for a new era of urban planning as McKinsey recommends? The Bush administration was unable to muster the will to use the devastation of Hurricane Katrina to deal with our own urban vulnerabilities. Hopefully the Chinese will see the opportunity to not only prevent future loss of life, but also to give the Bush administration a lesson in long-term disaster mitigation.

Earthquake coverage on Chinese TV

12 May 2008 11:20 am

Most of the channels on the (state controlled) CCTV are running the normal game shows, Olympic warmups (especially torch-relay updates), teen music shows, etc. But the CCTV-1 news channel is having all-out coverage of the earthquake in Sichuan province. Brief cultural notes:

- The coverage included a long segment of premier Wen Jiabao reading a speech about his deep concern for the people of Sichuan, from aboard an airplane en route to the disaster scene. Background: after the country was paralyzed by unexpected snow storms in February, the leadership was criticized for a Katrina-like slowness in dealing with the problem. Prominent coverage now of the main officials responding immediately to this disaster.

- News channels from Taiwan, which we are watching in alternation with the mainland coverage on CCTV, have extensive video footage from Chengdu, estimates of casualties, etc. So far no on-scene video footage that I've seen on CCTV-1, and no casualty figures. (The state news agency, Xinhua, is saying that 7600 people, or more, may have died.) Channel-surfing, we see that the German, Japanese, and Korean networks are also running Chengdu footage. It could have been on CCTV when I wasn't watching, but it's certainly not featured. CCTV is mainly running telephone interviews with correspondents in Sichuan and talking-head analyses in the studio. Possible background: controlling coverage within China until being sure exactly how the story should be presented. (Update: just saw a 20-second video clip from Chengdu on CCTV.)

- To help place this disaster: it is in almost exactly the same area I described in this article about the Wolong Panda Reserve, northwest of Chengdu, and this slide show about the reserve. A long, twisty road from Chengdu to Wolong, which had been undergoing years of reconstruction, passes right through the earthquake area. I assume it could be a long time before it is restored to even its perilous previous condition.

Good luck to all in Sichuan, including Dr. Tang Chunxiang and his colleagues in Wolong.

ASP In the News | May 08-12

Faith Smith — Mon, 12 May 2008 16:20:00 -0400

World Politics Review (5/12) cites Flynt Leverett on China's rising influence in the Middle East.
Toronto Star (5/11) discusses Steve Coll's book and the West's obsession with Osama Bin Laden.
Democracy Arsenal (5/9) quotes Ghaith al-Omari on U.S. and Israeli options for engaging Hamas.
TPM Cafe (5/7) Daniel Levy writes about Israel's stubborn commitment to roadblocks and checkpoints.

Manned or Unmanned?

Kailash Srinivasan — Fri, 09 May 2008 21:20:00 -0400

After the Vietnam War showed the downside of using a conscript army to fight a divisive war, the All-Volunteer Military was born. But the Administration's mis-handling of Iraq has shattered the volunteer model, with casualties high and recruiting and retention down. New America's Frida Berrigan reports in her latest piece, "Raptors, Robots, and Rods from God", that the Military's recruting problem is underwriting the case for more automated fighting machines. Welcome to the Future Combat Systems Network, a "family" of sensors, munitions, ground and air vehicles designed to allow soldiers to fight at a distance from the battlefield. Terminator fans will recognize the slippery slope: when does unmanned blur into autonomous?

ASP in the News | May 7-9

Ian McAllister — Fri, 09 May 2008 20:22:00 -0400

The Washington Post (05/08) features Peter Bergen savaging Morgan Spurlock's new documentary.
Wired Magazine (05/07) quotes Jeffrey Lewis on the dynamics of space warfare
The Orion (05/07) cites Afshin Molavi on the pressures within Iranian culture

After Torture and Militarization: Accountability and Reform

Patrick Doherty — Fri, 09 May 2008 17:52:00 -0400

Because of Philippe Sands, a London-based international criminal lawyer and professor, American wheels of justice have begun to grind in the direction of the nation's most senior lawyers; the men who designed and then covered up the legal authorization for the use of torture by the U.S. Military. After testifying on Capitol Hill to Rep. John Conyers' House Judiciary Committee, Philippe Sands joined Col. Lawrence Wilkerson (ret.) and me to explain, examine and discuss what exactly happened, and the burgeoning case against the lawyers for Secretary of State Don Rumsfeld, Vice President Dick Cheney, CIA Director George Tenet, and President George W. Bush.

Drawing from his recently-released book, Torture Team, and his article in this month's issue of Vanity Fair, Philippe revealed a powerful indictment of the actions of the White House from 2001-2006. For the full event video, click here.

Ultimately, however, the question of accountability for these actions, which Supreme Court Justice Kennedy wrote may amount to "war crimes," in his 2006 concurring Hamdan opinion, must be complemented with a robust new committment to stregthen the American system against future perversions of America's considerable power.

Col. Wilkerson, in his remarks, discussed one such option that would restore balance within America's national security architecture . In short, he would promote the Assistant Secretaries of State for each region of the world to Under Secretary of State, send them out of Foggy Bottom and into the field and then make the regional combattant commander, (CENTCOM, SOUTHCOM, PACOM, etc.) report to the Under Secretary of State for that region. Col. Wilkerson, of course, makes the point more eloquently:

A Dangerous Concert

Kailash Srinivasan — Fri, 09 May 2008 14:44:00 -0400

John Ikenberry and Anne-Marie Slaughter recently proposed that the U.S. create an organization made up of the world's liberal democracies, "Concert of Democracies," that would serve as a souce of legitimacy for the use of force outside of the United Nations. In a recent TPM Cafe piece, New America's Michael Lind argues this would serve only to allow a hawkish U.S. President to get weak states to rubber-stamp an unpopular was such as in Iran.

Is London Loosing its Edge?

Ian McAllister — Wed, 07 May 2008 18:35:00 -0400

A proposal by Gordon Brown's government to up the taxes paid by resident foreigners and demand greater transparency in their offshore dealings has many fearing an exodus of London's international financiers. This comes at a time when increasing numbers of businesses in London are also moving their headquarters to countries with lower taxes. Layoffs by banks in the wake of the subprime crisis are further damaging the City's reputation as a vibrant financial center. A loss of foreign residents and international business would be devastating for a city that has emerged as New York's greatest rival for global preeminence.

Snapshot asks, could New York reclaim the top spot if London falls?

The Times - Nondom Raid will Lead to Capital Exodus
Financial Times - Big Companies Consider Domicile Status
International Herald Tribune - Job Losses Feared in British Financial Sector
Financial Times - City Job Vacancies Down by a Quarter
Bank for International Settlements -Intl. Financial Centers: A Network Perspective

ASP in the News | May 5-7

Ian McAllister — Wed, 07 May 2008 15:28:00 -0400

Pacific Daily News (05/07) analyzes Parag Khanna's hypothesis of the decline of U.S. hegemony.
US News (05/06) quotes Sherle Schwenninger on the cost of doing business in the U.S.
AFP (05/06) cites Steve Clemons discussing the negative impact of Clinton's comments on Iran.
Hard News (05/06) discusses Peter Bergen's research on the link between education and terrorist recruitment.
The People's Daily (04/25) quotes Steve Clemons arguing against a boycott of the Beijing Games.